Nolan McLean and his run of steady starts headline the series finale as the New York Mets visit the Chicago White Sox this afternoon. The game is essentially a pick’em, with the Mets listed at -107, and first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET at Rate Field.
McLean’s edge over Chicago’s opener plan shapes my Mets vs. White Sox predictions, which back New York on the moneyline, lean Under the total, and target a White Sox slugger to go deep.
Read more in my MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 23.
Who will win Mets vs White Sox today: Mets moneyline (-107)
Nolan McLean gives the New York Mets the most important pitching advantage in this matchup at essentially a pick’em price. I prefer the Mets over a Chicago White Sox team leaning on an opener and bulk relief. McLean has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts, giving New York real stability.
Sean Newcomb has pitched well with a 2.44 ERA, but he’s working as an opener, which puts more pressure on a White Sox bullpen that had to cover 6 1/3 innings yesterday after Luis Castillo was knocked out in the third.
The Mets are also the hotter team lately and just erupted for 10 runs and five homers yesterday. I’ll back New York at close to even money since McLean offers a much clearer path to 6+ quality innings. I’d play New York to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Nolan McLean has completed at least six innings in 11 of his last 13 starts, giving New York a clear edge over Chicago’s opener-and-bullpen plan.
Mets vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
McLean’s consistency is enough to bet against another slugfest and take the Under at 8.5. He has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, including just two earned runs across his last 12 innings against Atlanta and San Diego, and his ability to work deep limits New York’s bullpen exposure after Saturday’s high-scoring game.
Chicago has a credible plan behind the opener, too. Sean Newcomb owns a 2.44 ERA and a 47.5% ground-ball rate, while Erick Fedde offers a bulk option after throwing 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cubs. That's more stability than Saturday’s 10-5 result suggests.
Both lineups carry power, but Chicago has been inconsistent with runners in scoring position, and the Mets remain without Juan Soto. With McLean capable of holding the White Sox to around three runs, I see the value on the lower-scoring side. I’d play the Under to -120.
Mets vs White Sox home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+365)
Munetaka Murakami has one of the best power matchups on the board, with his production against right-handed pitching lining up well against McLean’s vulnerabilities. Murakami has hit 23 home runs in 276 plate appearances against righties this season while slugging .588, and he’s gone deep five times over his last 15 games.
McLean has allowed 11 of his 15 home runs to left-handed hitters, a favorable platoon edge for Murakami, and his four-seam fastball is his clearest weakness against lefties, producing a .425 wOBA in those matchups. Murakami feasts on four-seamers, owning a .689 slugging mark and a +16 Statcast run value against the pitch.
At +365, I’ll back one of Chicago’s biggest power threats to take advantage. I’d play this to +325 for a quarter unit.
- ML/RL bets: 3-3, -0.07 units
- Over/Under bets: 3-3, +0.07 units
Mets vs White Sox weather
Conditions should be comfortable at Rate Field, with temperatures around 73 degrees, 52% humidity, and no rain expected, while winds sit near 11 mph. The park is sheltered from wind effects, so I don’t expect the weather to change the Under 8.5 or Munetaka Murakami HR outlook.
Mets vs White Sox odds
- Moneyline: Mets -107 | White Sox -103
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+152) | White Sox +1.5 (-168)
- Over/Under: Over XXX | Under XXX
Mets vs White Sox trend
The Mets are 12-5 since the trade deadline, the hotter team entering the finale, which backs their moneyline behind Nolan McLean. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. White Sox.
How to watch Mets vs White Sox and game info
| Location | Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, CHSN |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (9-8, 3.34 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Sean Newcomb (1-3, 2.44 ERA) |
Mets vs White Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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