Our Sunday MLB moneyline predictions feature a strong mix of short favorites and massive underdogs in appealing individual and team matchups across the board.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 23.
MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 23
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cardinalsvs  Phillies |
+194 |
 Raysvs  Orioles |
-104 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Yankees |
-127 |
 Nationalsvs  Marlins |
+133 |
 Athleticsvs  Astros |
+138 |
 Tigersvs  Royals |
-127 |
 Metsvs  White Sox |
-117 |
 Angelsvs  Rangers |
-156 |
 Guardiansvs  Rockies |
-163 |
 Giantsvs  Red Sox |
+223 |
 Cubsvs  Mariners |
+104 |
 Twinsvs  Padres |
-133 |
 Piratesvs  Dodgers |
+233 |
 Redsvs  Diamondbacks |
-122 |
 Bravesvs  Brewers |
-133 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-23.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 23
Cardinals vs Phillies: Cardinals (+194)
Cardinals win probability: 34%
Laying -203 on Philadelphia ignores the value on St. Louis' bats, which have produced a solid 112 wRC+ and .756 OPS over the last 14 days. Kyle Leahy gives the Cardinals a live puncher’s chance to exploit Philadelphia’s bullpen vulnerabilities (3.71 SIERA) at a massive plus-money price.
Rays vs Orioles: Rays (-104)
Rays win probability: 51%
Tampa Bay enters with a red-hot offense posting a 113 wRC+ over the last 14 days, pairing high contact with disciplined plate approaches. Baltimore's bullpen has been prone to high-damage contact despite strikeout flashes. Back the Rays' superior operational baseline at a coin-flip price.
Blue Jays vs Yankees: Yankees (-127)
Yankees win probability: 55.9%
While the Yankees' lineup has slumped (86 wRC+), their bullpen has been historically stingy, sporting a slate-best 1.55 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across the last two weeks. Carlos Rodón should exploit Toronto's low-power profile (.125 ISO) to keep this tight and let the late-inning relievers finish.
Nationals vs Marlins: Nationals (+133)
Nationals win probability: 42.9%
Washington brings significant value at +133 against Janson Junk, targeting Miami's bullpen that has struggled with a 4.87 ERA over the past two weeks. Jackson Kent limits self-inflicted damage, while Washington's relievers boast a strong 25.4% strikeout rate and 3.63 SIERA to close this one out.
A's vs Astros: A's (+138)
Athletics win probability: 41%
Houston's offense has bottomed out over the last two weeks, generating a 65 wRC+ and a dismal .200 batting average. The A's bring above-average pop (.167 ISO, 103 wRC+) and present massive underdog value against Cristian Javier, making this price an ideal fade of Houston's dormant bats.
Tigers vs Royals: Tigers (-127)
Tigers win probability: 56%
Detroit gets the nod at a manageable price against Daniel Lynch IV and a Kansas City bullpen that has struggled badly with command, issuing 5.36 walks per nine with a 4.95 SIERA over the last two weeks. Even with the Tigers' starter still undecided, Detroit has the stronger late-inning path and enough offensive depth to capitalize if Lynch fails to work deep.
Mets vs White Sox: Mets (-117)
Mets win probability: 53.9%
New York offers a major pitching edge with a dominant bullpen posting a 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 25.6% strike rate over the last 14 days. With Chicago starting an undecided arm against Nolan McLean, backing the Mets at a short, playable price avoids laying massive juice.
Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-156)
Rangers win probability: 60.9%
Both offenses have cratered recently (Texas 74 wRC+, Angels 72 wRC+), but the Angels' league-worst .086 ISO severely caps their run ceiling. Cal Quantrill's ground-ball profile matches up well against an Angels lineup striking out 24.8% of the time, giving Texas the defensive edge.
Guardians vs Rockies: Guardians (-163)
Guardians win probability: 62%
Colorado's bullpen remains a liability, yielding a 4.97 SIERA and managing only a 14.8% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Cleveland puts the ball in play with elite bat-to-ball skills (16.4% K rate), allowing them to consistently manufacture runs at altitude against Tomoyuki Sugano.
Giants vs Red Sox: Giants (+223)
Giants win probability: 31%
Laying -233 chalk on Boston creates negative expected value regardless of recent lineup splits. Carson Whisenhunt gives San Francisco a live southpaw option, while the Giants' bullpen holds a sturdy 3.32 FIP over the past two weeks. Take the massive plus-money price against this massive juice.
Cubs vs Mariners: Cubs (+104)
Cubs win probability: 49%
The Cubs are mashing the ball, posting a 116 wRC+ and .218 ISO over the last 14 days. Seattle's bullpen has melted down recently, posting a 7.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Shota Imanaga gives Chicago the stability needed to keep the Mariners' lineup in check and exploit Seattle's pitching struggles at plus-money.
Twins vs Padres: Padres (-133)
Padres win probability: 57.1%
San Diego is firing on all cylinders, combining a 120 wRC+ with the league's most dominant bullpen (2.18 ERA, 2.95 SIERA, 31.0% K rate over two weeks). Ober is capable, but Walker Buehler and this stacked Padres relief core hold the distinct late-inning advantage.
Pirates vs Dodgers: Pirates (+233)
Pirates win probability: 30%
Laying -257 juice on Los Angeles is untenable with their bats slumping to a 93 wRC+ and sub-.300 OBP over the last two weeks. Carmen Mlodzinski and a high-leverage Pirates bullpen posting a dominant 28.0% strikeout rate and 3.77 SIERA over the past 14 days offer massive price value against heavy market tax.
Reds vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-122)
Diamondbacks win probability: 55%
Cincinnati has been the league's worst offensive team over the past two weeks, slashing .183/.257/.290 with a dreadful 47 wRC+. Arizona's lineup is rolling (118 wRC+, .349 OBP), giving Mitch Bratt tremendous run support and setting up the Snakes to dictate today's game.
Braves vs Brewers: Brewers (-133)
Brewers win probability: 57.1%
Atlanta's offense has stalled completely, putting up a 64 wRC+ and striking out 25.3% of the time. Milwaukee pairs disciplined hitting (11.1% walk rate) with a shutdown bullpen posting an MLB-best 1.54 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last two weeks in this neutral-site Williamsport showcase.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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