Roughriders vs Lions Prediction, Picks & Odds for CFL Week 12

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst 5+ years betting experience
Updated: Aug 21, 2026 , 04:44 PM ET • 4 min read

Led by their defense, the Roughriders are poised to keep this game close on the road and put themselves in position to pull off the upset.

Trevor Harris Saskatchewan Roughriders CFL
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Saskatchewan Roughriders quarterback Trevor Harris (7) looks to pass.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders look to get back on track when they visit BC Place in Vancouver to take on the BC Lions on Sunday at 7 p.m. ET (TSN).

Riding a three-game winning streak, the CFL odds list BC as a 2.5-point favorite at home, but my Roughriders vs. Lions predictions and CFL picks expect the defending Grey Cup champions to bounce back on the West Coast.

Who will win Roughriders vs Lions: Roughriders +2.5 (-115)

The BC Lions' three-game winning streak is slightly misleading. Two of those wins came against teams without their starting QBs - Hamilton Tiger-Cats (Bo Levi Mitchell) and Winnipeg Blue Bombers (Zach Collaros)- while the third came against a Calgary Stampeders defense that's the worst in the West.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders have a far fiercer defense capable of shutting down the Lions' ground game, which ranks No. 2 in the CFL in rushing yards per game (116.9). A big reason the Riders are allowing the third-fewest PPG in the league (26.8) is because of their run defense (78.4 rushing yards allowed per game).

With Trevor Harris at QB, who's No. 2 in the league in TD passes (20), Saskatchewan is third in the league in PPG (32.6) and should be able to score enough to keep this game close.

I have so much belief in the Grey Cup odds favorites in the West that I would consider taking the Roughriders to win outright.

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Roughriders vs Lions total prediction: Under 62.5 (-108)

The Roughriders are 4-2 betting the Under since the start of July, and the only two times they hit the Over were because their offense exploded (36 points and 42 points). That's unlikely to happen against this Lions defense, especially with Saskatchewan's injuries on offense.

The Lions are allowing the fourth-fewest PPG in the CFL (27.9) and the fewest yards per game (339.6). And with AJ Ouellette out for the Riders, running the ball against the CFL's No. 1 rush defense will be a tall task.

Similarly, the Lions have hit the Under in four of their six games since the beginning of July, thanks in part to their defense stepping up (allowing 23 PPG). But their offense has done its part, too, averaging 24.2 PPG over its last five.

This game total is a few points too high, and I'd take the Under on any number above 59.5

Covers COVERS INTEL: Including playoffs, the Roughriders have covered against the Lions in seven straight matchups. 


Roughriders vs Lions same-game parlay

Both of these teams have leaned heavily on their defenses while their offenses have dealt with injuries, and it's led to plenty of Unders hitting. In July, the Riders and Lions are a combined 8-4 betting the Under.

However, Saskatchewan has a more trustworthy offense with Harris at QB. The reigning Grey Cup MVP has been more consistent than Nathan Rourke this season and can do enough to keep this game close, if not win.

Roughriders vs Lions SGP

  • Roughriders +2.5
  • Under 62.5

Roughriders vs Lions weather

Weather isn't expected to be a factor on Sunday night, but if it is, BC Place has a retractable roof that will be closed.

Roughriders vs Lions odds

  • Spread: Roughriders +2.5 (-105) | Lions -2.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Roughriders +124 | Lions -148
  • Over/Under: Over 62.5 (-112) | Under 62.5 (-108)

Roughriders vs Lions key injuries

Roughriders: AJ Ouellette RB (Out), Kian Schaffer-Baker WR (Out).
Lions: Jacob Bond FB (Questionable), Anu Una OL (Questionable), Matt Spatny DL (Questionable), Deontai Williams DB (Questionable).

Roughriders vs Lions trend

The Roughriders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss.

How to watch Roughriders vs Lions and game info

Location BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Date Sunday, Aug. 23, 2026
Kick-off 7:00 p.m. ET
TV TSN

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob Paul has worked in the sports betting industry for several years, primarily covering collegiate sports with a sprinkle of NFL, NBA, WNBA, and CFL. He uses a combination of advanced stats and film to find betting value, and aims to exploit specific matchups with plus-money player props.

A college sports junky, Rob's betting process tends to revolve around which games he plans on watching on a given day/week. He begins the process by looking at the college football/basketball schedule and making a list of what he plans on watching before diving into advanced numbers to help inform how to bet each matchup.

Typically, Rob bets at FanDuel and bet365, as they tend to offer a wider array of collegiate player props. Rob loves the way sports betting can act as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly Group of Six and FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball.

Before joining Covers, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, building his college football and NFL experience and expertise while working as a full-time local community journalist.

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