The final game on the MLB betting board for Friday night is a clash between the New York Mets and San Diego Padres. The Padres took the first contest in this four-game set last night and are -189 favorites to win again today.
Here are our best free Mets vs. Padres picks and predictions for Friday, June 4, with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Mets vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, June 4, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports San Diego
Mets vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel posted San Diego as -178 chalk this morning, stretched out to -210 multiple times, then backed up to -176, where the moneyline stands at 7 p.m. ET. Contrary to the receding price, though, it's all Padres, at 83 percent of tickets and 89 percent of cash. The total moved from 7.5 to 7 several times and is now 7 (Over -118), with 79 percent of bets/86 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joey Lucchesi (1-2, 6.56 ERA): Lucchesi has not been very effective in his first season in New York, pitching to a 1.29 WHIP and failing to log more than four innings in any of his eight starts.
That said, the former Padre has looked good in his last two starts, allowing three hits and one run across 7 2-3 innings against the Rockies and Marlins.
Blake Snell (1-2, 5.55 ERA): The former Cy Young winner has struggled in his first year with the Friars. While his strikeout rate is still very high, fanning 70 batters through 47 innings, he has a WHIP of just 1.60.
Snell has gotten rocked in each of his last two starts, surrendering 12 runs in 6 2-3 innings versus the Astros and Brewers.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jonathan Villar SS (Questionable), Jeff McNeil 3B (Out), Michael Conforto LF (Out).
Padres: Austin Nola C (Out), Trent Grisham LF (Probable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 18-7-1 in the Padres' last 26 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
The Mets may have lost last night but they won five of their previous six games to take over first place in the NL East. The Padres' 4-3 victory last night snapped a four-game losing streak as they slipped one game behind the Giants in the NL West.
A big reason for the Mets' turnaround has been their improved play at the plate. After ranking near the bottom of the majors in scoring and OPS for much of the season, the Mets bats have come alive, plating 6.8 runs per game with an OPS of .875 over their last five contests.
Joey Lucchesi will toe the rubber for the Mets tonight. While he hasn't been great this season, he should be pumped up to play against his former team after admitting he was "upset" after betting traded away from San Diego in the offseason. Lucchesi has a history of performing well at Petco Park, going 13-8 with a 3.19 ERA in 32 career starts in San Diego.
While the Friars lineup is formidable, they have struggled to hit against southpaws like Lucchesi, ranking 26th in the majors with an OPS of just .662 against left-handed pitchers.
The Padres will send Blake Snell to the mound tonight and he has struggled this season, pitching to a 5.55 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP across 11 starts.
With how well the Mets have been playing lately and Lucchesi looking for revenge, there is plenty of value in backing the road underdogs at +170.
PREDICTION: ML NY Mets (+170)
Over/Under pick
Petco Park is a pitcher's paradise but there's plenty of reason to think the Over/Under of 7 tonight is a tad too low.
While both Snell and Lucchesi should perform better at Petco, let's not forget that both starters have looked awful at times this season and both have ERAs well over 5.00.
Even with the Padres hitting poorly at home, they still plate 4.41 runs per game. And the Mets lineup has performed much better lately, thanks in large part to Francisco Lindor finally starting to play up to his contract. The All-Star infielder has batted .391 in his last five games while scoring eight runs.
That offensive improvement for the Mets has resulted in them cashing the Over in six straight games. It also appears that oddsmakers might be setting San Diego's totals too low with the Padres going 16-5-1 O/U in their last 22 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
PREDICTION: Over 7 (-115)
Mets vs Padres betting card
- ML NY Mets (+170)
- Over 7 (-115)
Picks made on 6/4/2021 at 12:20 p.m. ET
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