Two of the best lineups in baseball will face off when the Houston Astros open a series with the Toronto Blue Jays at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, but Game 1 could be a pitcher’s duel.
The Astros hand the ball to Zack Greinke while the Blue Jays counter Hyun-jin Ryu. So, with a total of 8.5, what wins out, the great hitting or the stud starters?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Astros vs. Blue Jays on Friday, June 4, with first pitch scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Sahlen Field, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Friday, June 4, 2021
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: ATT SportsNet-SW, SNET 1
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonToronto was a -120 favorite on the opening moneyline Thursday night at FanDuel, stretched as far as -144 this morning and is -138 at 4:45 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays are taking 58 percent of tickets and 65 percent of money. The total bounced between 8.5 and 8 a couple of times and is now 8.5 flat (-110), with the Over seeing 54 percent of tickets/66 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAstros vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA): The Astros' cerebral starter continues to put in solid work, even in his 18th MLB season. The right-hander has an impressive 1.13 WHIP to go along with his solid ERA. And Greinke is in a groove right now, pitching to a 2.79 ERA and limiting opponents to a .196 batting average over his last four starts.
Hyun Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.62 ERA): Ryu continues to pitch like an ace. He's arguably showing the best command he’s ever had and that’s saying something. The lefty has a 1.05 WHIP for the season, has the best strikeout-to-walk rate of his career, and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts this season.
Weather
It should be a nice night for baseball in Buffalo. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the high 60s around first pitch. There will also be a 10-12 mile per hour pitcher’s wind blowing in from right field. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Michael Brantley LF (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out), Austin Pruitt RP (Out), Bryan Abreu RP (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out), Josh James RP (Out).
Blue Jays: Cavan Biggio UTL (Questionable), George Springer CF (Out), A.J. Cole RP (Out), Ryan Borucki RP (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Alejandro Kirk C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six games against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.
Moneyline pick
Offense should take center stage in this series. The Astros rank fourth in scoring, first in batting average, second in OPS, and strike out the least in baseball. While the Blue Jays rank second in scoring, first in OPS, and are the fifth-hardest to strikeout. So, Game 1 should come down to whichever starter can execute the best.
Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball in the truest sense of that word, but if he can’t locate as well as he needs to, he tends to get hit around. And this Blue Jays lineup is one of the most difficult to navigate.
The Jays also lead the MLB in batting average and OPS off right-handers and got to Greinke for four runs on nine hits in their last encounter, getting him out of the game after just four innings.
While the Astros are among the best in baseball when it comes to hitting off lefties, Ryu is at another level right now. The Astros were also held to just one run on six hits in 7 2-3 innings from southpaw Martin Perez in their last game against the Red Sox.
The fact the Blue Jays bats are arguably the hottest thing going and handled Greinke the last time they faced makes this a good price to back them with Ryu on the bump.
PREDICTION: Blue Jays (-125)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game presents the age-old baseball question, what is more important — hitting or pitching? Well, oddsmakers split the difference and posted a number of 8.5. But for me, good pitching always beats good hitting.
First of all, not having Michael Brantley the last couple of games seems to have affected the Astros offense, putting up just three runs in their last two games. On top of that, Ryu is also in a groove right now, pitching to a 1.75 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts, which came against the Braves, Red Sox, and Rays.
Second, as noted, Greinke is capable of spinning a gem at any time and the Jays showed they can have some trouble with guys who can change speeds after the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez struck out nine batters in just four innings.
Yes, the Jays got to Greinke last time they met, but he is coming off eight innings of one-run ball against a dangerous Padres team. We’re betting this one sneaks Under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-110)
Astros vs Blue Jays betting card
- Blue Jays (-125)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Picks made on 6/3/2021 at 11:45 p.m. ET
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