The Toronto Blue Jays head to New York chasing one more win to punch their ticket to their first ALCS in nearly a decade — and they’ll get their first shot at it Tuesday night against the Yankees.
My Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, October 7 explain why this matchup sets up for another high-scoring slugfest in what’s shaping up to be a toss-up game.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 predictions
Who will win Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3
It’s a true toss-up. The value is with Toronto, but New York might get just enough pitching to win this more often than they don’t. I lean toward the Yankees.
Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet
Over 7.5 (-110)
I have questions about both starting pitchers, and I’ll take the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees to go Over for the third straight game in this series.
Carlos Rodon has been “Steady Eddie” for the Yankees over the past month; not great, but good enough to keep New York in position to win most games. The issue here, as it often is against Toronto, is that he’s a strikeout-reliant pitcher facing a lineup that simply doesn’t whiff.
The Jays rank second in chase contact rate and third in whiff rate, which is a lethal combination. That’s a problem for Rodon because it exposes his average barrel rate and elevated walk rate.
For that reason, I think Toronto can absolutely do its part to push this total Over.
On the other side, Shane Bieber has been solid but far from his peak form with the Guardians. He hasn’t faced the Yankees in over three years, leaving us without meaningful head-to-head data.
What concerns me most is that he hasn’t faced a team near the top in barrel rate yet this season. Now he draws one that ranks first, in a win-or-go-home spot, at Yankee Stadium.
With his own barrel and hard-hit rates sitting near the bottom of the league, I expect trouble here. This total should be closer to 8.5.
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Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 same-game parlay (SGP)
With Bieber’s strikeout numbers being down, relative to his career averages, I think there’s a window for Ryan McMahon to have success in this matchup. He fits the profile with strong hard-hit metrics against both the fastball and slider.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s career numbers against Rodon are strong due to his low strikeout metrics, which forces Rodon to give him competitive pitches in the zone. He usually doesn’t miss them, especially right now.
Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP
- Over 7.5
- Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 hits
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick for Game 3
Ryan McMahon (+475)
This version of Bieber isn’t going to overpower you with strikeouts, and that’s exactly where McMahon is most vulnerable. McMahon ranks among the Top 4 active Yankees in hard-hit rate versus the fastball and slider, making him a sneaky candidate to leave the yard.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +125 | New York -150
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs Yankees trend
The Toronto have hit the Over in 76 of their last 132 games (+21.10 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and Game 3 info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, October 7, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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