Offense may be in short supply for two losing teams
The New York Mets look to win their third series in a row as they play game two in Arizona. Despite the recent run of success, New York is still tied for the worst record in the National League.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are only 2.5 games better, however.
Neither team has been hitting, but the Mets have the better end of the pitching matchup. That's why my Mets vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks have the Mets winning as a road favorite.
Who will win Mets vs Diamondbacks today: Mets moneyline (-108)
Both teams have been punchless, but pitching has been the difference. The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks each scored under five runs in seven of 10 games.
But New York is 3-4 as their pitchers matched opposing zeroes, while Arizona lost all of them.
The Mets are in better shape Saturday, with NL ERA leader Clay Holmes on the mound. His walk rate is the lowest in four years, and his hit rate is the lowest in five.
Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who has been a disaster so far this year. He's walking 7.1 batters per nine innings and allowing a home run every three innings.
COVERS INTEL: Kelly literally could not be worse so far this season. He's in baseball's bottom 1% in pitching run value, both fastball and offspeed run value, expected ERA, and opposing batting average, as well as opponent barrel percentage.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-108)
The Mets rank at the bottom of MLB in OPS and second-to-last in runs per game. They've hit slightly better over the last week, but were still 6% below league average over that span.
If Kelly, who missed spring training with an injury, can't figure out what to adjust to regain his old form, the Mets should be able to score. But in that case, Kelly likely won't be around very long.
The D-Backs have been better, but still below league average, at the plate all season, but their bats have abandoned them lately. Arizona is hitting .171 with .548 OPS over the last week, 42% below league average.
- ML/RL bets: 11-12 -0.48 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-14, -1.76 units
Mets vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Mets -108 | Diamondbacks +104
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-156)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+104) | Under 9.5 (-108)
Mets vs Diamondbacks trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Mets vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, May 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (4-2, 1.69 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (1-3, 9.95 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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