The New York Mets will try to snap out of their recent losing stretch as they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks for the first of a three-game series on Monday night.
There’s an opener in the cards for Arizona, and that has me expecting early runs, so I’ll be taking the Over in my Mets vs. Diamondbacks predictions.
Let’s break down this series opener and look at the best bets available in my free MLB picks for Monday, May 5.
Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Mets vs Diamondbacks best bet: Over 9.5 (-105 at Caesars)
The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks have two of the better offenses in the National League, with Arizona averaging 5.18 runs per game, while New York is scoring 4.80 runs per game. That means we should always at least consider the Over in this matchup, as we can set an expectation for around 10 runs per game in a vacuum.
But the pitching matchup is still crucial, as always. And in tonight’s game, I think it pushes us to the Over when 10 runs will get us a win against the total.
The big news tonight is that the Diamondbacks won’t be able to send Corbin Burnes to the mound, as he’s suffering from right shoulder inflammation. Instead, Arizona will piece together a game starting with Ryne Nelson, who will make his first start of the season as an opener.
Nelson has spent most of his time in the majors as a starter, so he should be able to give Arizona multiple innings even without having built up for a rotation role this year. He’s already made three appearances of 3+ innings this year, and I expect he’ll get to at least that mark tonight as well.
But Nelson hasn’t shown much in his 17 innings of work this season. While the basic metrics underlying his 5.82 ERA look promising for some positive regression, some analytical measures are more worrisome. The hard hit rate against Nelson sits at 46.9% for the season, and while that’s a metric he’s never excelled in, that’s still the highest number of his career. The biggest problem is that batters are roping line drives against Nelson at a 34.7% rate, resulting in a lot of hits.
Griffin Canning will get the start for New York. Canning has been a big surprise for the Mets, posting a 2.61 ERA in his first six starts this year. But I’m not ready to assume this is sustainable for the righty, who has put up an ERA over 5.00 in two of his last three seasons. While Canning has done a good job of avoiding homers this season, something that has previously been a problem for him, he’s still walking 4.1 batters per nine innings, and I’m not convinced he’s fixed his long ball problems based on this small sample.
This Diamondbacks lineup will be a real test for Canning, and I expect that Arizona will find at least some success while he remains in the game. The Mets should have the best of the early play against Nelson, but both offenses should have their moments, and it’s hard to see either struggling to get at least a few runs over nine innings. I’m expecting a double-digit total, which means I’m taking the Over tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Mets moneyline — first three innings
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases
Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits
As I’ve already said, I don’t have much confidence in Ryne Nelson in his opener role tonight, and that’s going to form the basis of my same-game parlay. While I don’t love either team on the overall moneyline tonight, I’m taking the Mets to have the lead after three innings, as Canning should outduel Nelson and anyone else the Diamondbacks throw in the early innings.
Assuming the Mets will get some runs, it makes sense to complete our SGP by taking a couple of New York stars to hit some modest offensive benchmarks tonight. Pete Alonso remains hot to start the season, and has gone for 2+ bases in four of his last seven games overall; a fast start tonight should help him add to that total. Meanwhile, Juan Soto hasn’t given the Mets quite the offensive output they expected yet, but he has hit in four straight games, and I’m taking him to get a hit again tonight.
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Mets vs Diamondbacks odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks live odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -109 | Arizona -107
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+155) | Arizona +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Diamondbacks trend
The Over is 6-2 in New York’s last eight games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Mets vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Monday, 5-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, ARID |
| Mets starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (4-1, 2.61 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Ryne Nelson (1-0, 5.82 ERA) |
Mets vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Mets vs Diamondbacks weather
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