Mets vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Swanson Stays Strong Against Lefties

With Spencer Strider on the mound, Atlanta is in a great spot to get a win no matter who the opponent is. And while the Braves have struggled against lefties recently, it's not representative of the whole and they should handle Mets' David Peterson.

Last Updated: Jul 12, 2022 2:39 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Dansby Swanson Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves continue their three-game series on Tuesday night. The Mets were led by a dominant performance from Max Scherzer on Monday to propel them to a 4-1 win. Scherzer shined, going seven strong innings while punching out nine Braves batters.

The Mets are 6-4 in their last 10 outings, but have seen their lead in the NL East shrink to just 2.5 games as the Braves have been one of the best teams in the majors for the last month. Our betting picks take a closer look at whether or not the Braves can gain ground after tonight's game.

Mets vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Braves opened last night as the -160 favorite with the Over/Under set at 8.5. The line has adjusted to -185 as of noon ET.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 7/12/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Tuesday, July 12, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports South

Mets vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

David Peterson (5-1, 3.48 ERA): The 26-year-old left-hander has been decent for the Mets this season as their fifth starter. He picked up a win against these same Braves back on May 3, however, there were some speed bumps in that game as he gave up four runs over five innings. In his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, he struggled mightily giving up four hits and three runs over 3 2-3 innings. The good news for the Mets is Peterson seems to pitch much better on the road than at home as he has a 3.14 ERA with a 4.09 FIP away from home and the Mets are 9-2 in Peterson’s last 11 starts.

Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.60 ERA): The rookie right-hander has been sensational with a 2.60 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts. In his last two games against the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals, Strider reached double-digit strikeouts both times while giving up a total of three hits over 12 innings.


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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 0-4 in their last four Game 2’s of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves

Mets vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is the sixth matchup of the season between these NL East rivals with the Mets having taken three out of the first five games. The Mets have been consistent all year and are showing that the moves they made in the off-season were worth every dollar spent. This is also a team that hasn't gotten a start out of two-time NL Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom. New York boasts four All-Stars alongside Pete Alonso, closer Edwin Diaz, Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte, with the latter two both sidelined for tonight’s game.

The Braves boast some tough at-bats from the right-side including Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Travis d'Arnaud, and Austin Riley which will play well for them against the left-handed Peterson. However, over the past month, Atlanta is in the bottom half of the league in terms of team wRC+ at home against left-handed pitching. Additionally, they are only the 16th-best offense against LHP at home. 

Despite that, the Braves have been playing some of the best baseball over the last month and had just come off a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals before losing on Monday.

Besides, when looking at Atlanta's results over the course of the whole season, the numbers against southpaws are much more favorable. Their team OPS of .789 vs. left-handers ranks tied for third in MLB and their 33 homers is fifth. 

Tonight, they go up against Peterson, who has a 5.84 ERA in his last five starts versus Atlanta since 2020. The Braves' potent offense is third in the majors averaging 4.78 runs per game, eighth in batting average, and first in slugging percentage led by Riley’s team-leading 24 home runs and 57 RBI. Not only has Riley hit a home run in each of his last three games, but he is also 5-for-10 lifetime against Peterson and he's batting .310 with seven long balls and nine doubles vs. lefties this year. 

Then factor in the spectacular Strider opposing Peterson on the mound. The current betting favorite in NL Rookie of the Year odds has been an absolute force on the mound since joining Atlanta's rotation in late May, posting a 2.83 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 41 1-3 innings over eight starts. After a bump in the road where he allowed six runs over 3 2-3 innings to San Francisco, Strider has surrendered just one earned run over his last 18 innings (three starts).

The Mets may be tempting in this spot due to the plus money on the moneyline but with Strider shoving and New York missing two of its four All-Stars, the Braves are rightly favored.

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-185 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The first game of the series only had five runs due to the incredible pitching matchup. Tonight should be viewed similarly with Strider coming into this game nearly untouchable in his last few starts.

Strider has also been stretched out in that time, completing six innings in each of his last three outings — including a scoreless performance vs. the potent Dodgers — which could help spell a Braves bullpen that has been shaky without closer Kenley Jansen.

So even if Peterson doesn't have his best stuff, he would likely need to totally implode for this game to hit the Over on the total. And the Mets have been quick to give the lefty the hook if things start going sideways this season. This would give way to a bullpen with a 3.52 ERA (10th in MLB) that hasn't been overworked of late, though Edwin Diaz may not be available after pitching in three consecutive games.

Still, with Strider looking electric and the Mets lacking a couple of important bats, we're backing the Under tonight.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-120 at bet365)

Best bet

Since the injury to Ozzie Albies, Braves manager Brian Snitker has had Dansby Swanson in the two spot behind Acuna. The jump up the lineup has led to an incredible season so far and has earned him his first All-Star nod.

Swanson is batting .296 for Atlanta with 19 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs, and 50 RBI. He is also 3-for-11 against Peterson lifetime with one extra-base hit. That's a bit of a small sample so let's expand it. Swanson is a lefty killer, batting .306 with four homers and seven doubles in 97 plate appearances this season. 

He's also registered 29 multi-hit games this season, which accounts for more than a third of his starts.

While there might not be a lot of runs in this game, expect Swanson to produce as he has hit the Over in total bases twice in the last four games.

Pick: Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)

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