The New York Yankees picked up a big win over the Seattle Mariners to open up their three-game set at Yankee Stadium, and now another formidable pitcher awaits on Wednesday. Can the Yankees’ bats continue to trend upwards?
Let’s break down Mariners vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees predictions
Luis Castillo is a very good pitcher. He owns a 2.73 ERA this season, which follows a year where he posted a 2.99 ERA with two clubs. His strikeout rate is a tasty 29.6% which continues to make him one of the top arms in the world when it comes to punchouts.
He does have some troubling numbers beneath the surface, though, which is why some of the public is on the Over here. His hard-hit rate is up at 45.9%, which is bad, and his ground ball rate continues to drop.
With that said, his fly ball rate still sits below the league average, so I’m not too concerned about the drop in ground balls or the influx of quality contact. The Yankees have a 71 wRC+ over the last two weeks which makes them one of the worst clubs in baseball over that period in time, and they’re walking in just 4.9% of plate appearances.
Jhony Brito may not seem like a great pitcher, but he did strike out six in his last Major League start against the Reds and has nine punchouts across his last two starts in Triple-A, spanning 10 1/3 innings. With the Mariners’ propensity for the strikeout, I love the Under.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (-120 at PointsBet)
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay
Under 7.5
Castillo 7+ strikeouts
Brito 5+ strikeouts
I did say I like a pitcher’s duel here, so naturally my same-game parlay is going to be heavy on the pitching props. We’ve already covered why the Under is a great bet, so let’s get to these strikeout numbers.
Castillo was absolutely stunning against the Yankees last season, pitching to a 1.66 ERA in 21 2/3 innings. In the three starts he made, he struck out a total of 23 batters and never had fewer than seven Ks. His numbers have fluctuated a bit this year, but when it comes down to it he’s hit this mark in three of his last five starts.
The Mariners are striking out 25.9% of the time at the plate this year, and while Brito hasn’t really had a great go of it at the major or minor-league levels, he’s shown some improvements in the strikeout department. In his last MLB outing, he struck out six over five frames, and as I noted above he’s been striking out more down on the farm. This is a good matchup for him.
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Mariners vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Something else to consider here with the Under is that the Yankees’ defense has gotten better in recent weeks. Activating Josh Donaldson shores up the third base position and the return of Harrison Bader on Tuesday provides elite defense out in center. The Yankees had been struggling with their outfield defense, so this certainly helps.
I have enough faith in Brito here to consider the Yankees as an underdog play. They’re now 19-8 when Bader plays, and the offense seemed to be taking a different approach a night ago with many players hitting the other way through vacated holes in the defense. This could be a sneaky spot to play New York at home, particularly when you consider the Yankees’ hard-hit rate is still top-10 in the last two weeks.
The big money here is on the Under, accounting for 62% of the handle over at DraftKings and just 42% of the tickets. The money is pretty split on the moneyline, with 45% of the tickets on the Yankees but 51% of the money backing the home team.
The Yankees and the Under would be my preference here; I think this team is getting set to snap out of its funk.
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Trend to know
The Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 4 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees
Mariners vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Starting pitchers
Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.73 ERA): Castillo was brilliant against the Yankees a season ago and enters this one with a 2.89 ERA in the month of June. He’s struck out 10 in two of his last four starts.
Jhony Brito (3-3, 5.58 ERA): Brito was an interesting young arm who had a great spring and earned a spot in the big leagues. He proceeded to pitch to a 5.58 ERA in 40 1/3 major-league innings and owns a 7.08 ERA through four Triple-A starts. He’s being called up with the Yankees’ rotation in a pinch.
