It’s getaway day with a full slate of MLB games with the action getting underway at noon.
I’m targeting two pitchers and the reigning AL MVP in my best MLB player props on Wednesday, May 7.
Best MLB player props today
Mahle u2.5 ER (+108)
Judge o1.5 TB (-115)
Kikuchi o4.5 Ks (+105)
MLB props for May 7
Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 earned runs (+108 at Caesars)
Tyler Mahle only managed three starts in his first season with the Texas Rangers last year, and he already has three wins this time around.
The veteran right-hander has been terrific for Texas, going 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 37 2/3 innings across seven starts. While Mahle is sure to regress closer to his career 4.15 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over time, he has a strong 2.48 FIP as well, so he's back and better than ever.
This will be Mahle's second start against the Boston Red Sox this year. He made his season debut against Boston, lasting 1 2/3 innings with just two hits allowed while issuing free four passes. He only threw 30 of 61 pitches for strikes, which is something that he hasn't struggled with since. He's thrown 65% of his pitches for strikes on the season and has allowed one walk in each of his last two outings.
Boston is struggling a bit, losing five of six and three straight. The Sox have scored 22 runs in those six games and were held to one run in the series opener on Tuesday night.
Given how Mahle has pitched this season and the Red Sox’s recent struggles, I’ll happily take these plus-money odds for the right-hander to keep rolling.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
Aaron Judge continues to amaze. The New York Yankees slugger hit his 12th home run of the season on Tuesday night and is now slashing .412/.503/.772. That's an incredible 1.275 OPS through 36 games (136 at-bats)
Playing at Yankee Stadium has always helped Judge be that much better of a hitter, and that's continued this season. Nine of his 12 home runs have come at home with seven doubles and one triple for a .904 SLG and 1.404 OPS.
Judge has gone Over 1.5 bases in 69% of games this season, including nine of his last 10 and 12 of 14. That shoots up to three-quarters of his games at home with 2+ TB in six of his last seven and 11 of 13 contests.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease has an unsightly 5.61 ERA on the season, but nine of his 21 ER came in Sacramento. Still, no pitcher is immune to Judge's powers. The Yankees outfielder is 4-for-10 against Cease in his career with one home run and two doubles for a .900 SLG and 1.400 OPS.
Yusei Kikuchi Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi will be facing off against one of his former teams tonight. The southpaw spent two-plus years with the Toronto Blue Jays and had the best season of his career in 2023.
Kikuchi has looked like that pitcher for a few of his games this season with an up-and-down start to his Angels tenure. He's kept things from unraveling with no more than four earned runs in a start but has also yet to keep an opposing team off the scoreboard (his one run was unearned against the Giants).
Throughout all of that, though, he's remained fairly consistent when it comes to strikeouts.
The left-hander has 33 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings and has thrown six innings in four of his seven starts. Kikuchi has gone Over 4.5 Ks in all but one of his outings, a start where he lasted just two innings against the Twins. He bounced back with five Ks in five innings last week.
The Blue Jays are one of the better teams at putting the ball in play this season with just 7.29 strikeouts per game, but they punched out 11 times on Tuesday night — seven against southpaw starter Tyler Anderson — and 30 times across their last three contests.
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