The Texas Rangers got back on track with a win on Sunday night over the Atlanta Braves and will now take aim at the Seattle Mariners to build back some momentum and take their second series in three tries.
Seattle is coming in here with a head of steam having won seven of eight, though those wins came over the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds, who don’t match the quality of Texas.
Let's dive right into MLB picks for our Mariners vs. Rangers predictions on Tuesday, April 23.
Mariners vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Rangers moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This pitching matchup should be a fun one to look into, with Logan Gilbert cruising through the first month of play and building off some positive results and Dane Dunning remaining effective despite his scary underlying numbers.
The thing with Dunning last season was that no, he did not “get lucky” or “defy the odds” by pitching around a 4.48 expected ERA to a 3.70 actual ERA thanks to a great defense behind him.
Well, the Texas Rangers are once again in the top five when it comes to Outs Above Average, doing a marginally better job in the infield. Dunning’s rolled up slightly fewer ground balls and has taken a big leap in the fly ball department, but most impressively of all he’s kept his line drive rate under the league average. He’s currently sporting a poor .540 expected slugging and a rocky .269 xBA, but the batting average – at least – isn’t quite far off what we saw last season.
His biggest issue has really been an influx of walks, and that could be a challenge here against a Seattle Mariners team walking 10% of the time. With that said, Seattle has ranked just 17th in fly ball rate this year, and while it’s a bit scary to back a pitcher who’s allowed more fly balls this season who will step into a hitter’s park, he’s had to pitch to the Astros twice and the Rays once in his four starts.
Seattle is far less menacing, and with that, I like Dunning’s “luck” to continue here against a team that has not hit for power and which should keep the ball on the ground more than those previous opponents did.
On the flip side, barrels are the enemy of Logan Gilbert, who has pitched to nearly as many fly balls as Dunning but has gotten around trouble with high strikeout numbers. Texas is among the best in fly ball rate and home run-to-fly ball ratio, and with the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball, it should be in a favorable spot.
Mariners vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers moneyline
Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 strikeouts
Dane Dunning Over 5.5 strikeouts
We’re gonna get a little weird here with our same-game parlay and take two dueling strikeout props on either pitcher. Both should be rather surprising, but they make sense.
The first will be the Under on Gilbert. You may wonder why he’s set at just 5.5 punchouts despite eclipsing this number in every start so far, and that’s because the Rangers have done an excellent job of getting the ball back into play and are currently striking out under 20% of the time.
On the other side of the coin, Dunning’s up to nearly a career-best with 8.6 strikeouts per nine this season and he will have one of the friendliest strikeout matchups in all of baseball against the Mariners, who have been retired on strikes in a whopping 26.9% of their plate appearances. Dunning did hit this number in his first two starts, sitting down seven in each, before coming in under the total in his next two outings which were abbreviated and didn’t last six frames. He should pitch to contact well enough here and get the job done.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Rangers odds
Mariners vs Rangers live odds
Mariners vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+140) | Texas +1.5 -(165)
- Moneyline: Seattle -106 | Texas -102
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Mariners vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line has taken a bit of a journey to get back to right around the opening number of -105. Money was initially coming in on Seattle before the line pushed out steadily towards Texas and came back during the middle of the day on Tuesday to roughly -103.
- The total has sat at nine runs ever since it opened up, though we’ve seen some slight action towards the Under, moving the price roughly five cents.
- The Under has accounted for 79% of the bets and 83% of the money over at DraftKings, while Seattle is commanding 57% of the handle on the moneyline despite just 42% of the tickets.
Mariners vs Rangers trend
The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 81 of their last 151 games (+17.83 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rangers
Mariners vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT Sports Northwest, Bally Sports Southwest Extra |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (1-0, 2.33 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Dane Dunning (2-1, 3.91 ERA) |
Mariners vs Rangers latest injuries
Mariners vs Rangers weather
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