Mariners vs Astros ALDS Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Houston's Reliable Starter Delivers

Well, that’s one hell of a way to open a series. Trailing by two runs, with two on and down to their final out, Yordan Alvarez walked it off for the Houston Astros by blasting a dramatic three-run moonshot off Robbie Ray to secure an 8-7 victory over the Seattle Mariners in Game 1.

Seattle will try to pick itself up off the mat after that heart-wrenching defeat by handing the ball to ace Luis Castillo in Game 2. Castillo spun an absolute gem in Game 1 of the wild-card round against the Blue Jays, and the Mariners are hoping he can put in a repeat performance.

Houston counters with Mr. Reliable himself, Framber Valdez. The lefty had an incredible streak of 25 consecutive quality starts, but will that translate to postseason success?

I break down this pivotal ALDS Game 2 matchup and give you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions for the Mariners vs. Astros.

Mariners vs Astros best odds

Mariners vs Astros picks and predictions

The Mariners came excruciatingly close to stealing the first game of the ALDS, so will they be able to put that feeling behind them when they dig in against one of the most consistent pitchers in the AL this season in Framber Valdez?

The southpaw went an incredible 25 straight games where he recorded a quality start. Valdez pitched to a 2.41 ERA and limited opponents to a .211 batting average over that stretch which ended Sept. 24 at Baltimore. 

Valdez did stumble a bit down the stretch, but closed the season with a solid performance against the Phillies, shutting them out on two hits over five innings while striking out 10. While Valdez isn’t normally known for his strikeouts, he has definitely seen an uptick in them recently.

Valdez struck out a solid 9.6 batters per nine innings in the second half of the season, punching out six or more batters 11 times in his 13 second-half starts. That includes twice against this Mariners team, striking out 15 batters over 13 2-3 innings of work.

Striking out against left-handed hurlers has been an issue for Seattle all season. The Mariners rank 19th in strikeout rate vs. lefties and the only postseason team with a higher K-rate when facing lefties is the Atlanta Braves.

Valdez averages 6.5 innings per start and pitched into the seventh in both starts against the Mariners this season. He should pitch deep enough in this one to go Over his strikeout total. 

My best bet: Framber Valdez Over 5.5 strikeouts (-112)

Mariners vs Astros ALDS odds

Teams	Odds to win series
Seattle Mariners	-105
Houston Astros	-115

Mariners vs Astros moneyline analysis

The line for Game 2 opened with the Astros as -145 home favorites and right off the bat bettors could tell Houston was being underpriced. There still might be value with the Astros even at the current -155 to -160 range.

I already explained why I like Valdez to go Over his strikeout total, but he has solid numbers against the Mariners overall. The projected Mariners starting lineup is just a combined 18-for-88 (.204) with just two extra-base hits and 25 strikeouts.

Yes, the Mariners are handing the ball to ace Luis Castillo for this matchup. And yes, he is coming off an absolutely dominating performance against a good Blue Jays offense. So, he is certainly capable of another strong outing but he’s never faced this Astros team which is patient (second fewest strikeouts per game) and can go deep at any time (fourth in home runs).

On top of that, the Mariners used a lot of their high-leverage relievers in an attempt to close out Game 1. 

There is no way you enter a game like this without some sort of emotional letdown if you’re the Mariners. You felt like a team of destiny for a moment, and then an Alvarez bomb takes it all away in an instant. I’d lean toward the home team in Game 2.

Mariners vs Astros Over/Under analysis

I feel like the total for Game 2 may be a touch off. In a world where we are constantly seeing 6s on the board, a matchup between Castillo and Valdez has given us a 7.

Castillo has been exactly what the Mariners wanted him to be when they went out and got him at the trade deadline. The right-hander pitched to a 3.17 ERA, limited opponents to a .226 batting average, and struck out 10.6 batters per nine as a member of the Mariners. 

Then he threw a gem against the Jays, befuddling their hitters and scattering six hits over 7 1-3 innings while striking out five.

Suffice it to say, both starters have an excellent chance to succeed tonight. But with a bunch of runs being scored late yesterday, and several relievers used for both teams, I would prefer to look at the Under for the first-five inning total of 3.5.

Mariners vs Astros trend to know

The Astros are 14-2 in their last 16 ALDS postseason home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros

Mariners vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA): While Castillo gave up six hits to the Jays, he looked nearly unhittable in that start thanks to an electric fastball with plenty of movement. It was the seventh time in his last 11 starts he had allowed two earned runs or fewer.

Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA): Valdez was as consistent as any starter in baseball this season but is hoping that will carry over to the postseason where the results have been mixed. The lefty has a 4.53 ERA over nine career postseason games.

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