The 2026 MLB season is barely underway, but two newcomers are already turning into daily home run machines, while the weather in Wrigley is a great place to look for dingers. The MLB player props markets are slow to adjust.
While bettors are still getting last week’s prices, these three bats are getting premium matchups in hitter-friendly spots tonight. It’s a perfect storm for value, and their home run odds won’t stay this generous for long.
These are my best home run props for Monday, March 30.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami |
+480 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+500 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+310 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +12355 |
Munetaka Murakami (+480)
The Chicago White Sox might be headed for another dreadful season, but newcomer Munetaka Murakami is the sunshine on the Southside. The Japanese left-hander has gone deep in every game this year, and although there is some swing-and-miss potential, that works well for home run props as it's all or nothing with the rookie, with all three hits leaving the yard.
He has also moved from the sixth spot in the lineup to the second, so five plate appearances are very possible if Chicago can turn things over. He's going from an indoor setting to another controlled environment in Miami, and only four other pitchers in baseball last year gave up more home runs than Miami's Chris Paddack.
Fair price on the projection for our MLB picks is +360.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, MIAM
Kazuma Okamoto (+520)
Targeting Colorado Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano is a clear angle here. He allowed the fourth-most home runs last season and ranked in the Bottom 6% of the league in strikeout rate and Barrel% — a bad combo for limiting damage. He doesn’t miss bats, and there’s a real downside in a hitter-friendly matchup.
He now faces the Toronto Blue Jays, who just hit three homers on Sunday and have already seen Sugano multiple times, dating back to his stint with the Orioles last year — a quiet edge in familiarity.
The best +EV look is Kazuma Okamoto HR (+520), with the market as short as +425. He hit out of the five-hole yesterday and already cashed a HR ticket in a tougher matchup.
No starter projects for more earned runs on the slate than Sugano. Early in the season, pricing on NPB-to-MLB bats can lag — and this is exactly the kind of spot bettors can exploit before markets fully adjust.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, Sportsnet
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+310)
The wind is a major factor at Wrigley Field today, with Kevin Roth’s OVERcast projecting a 62% boost to home runs compared to a neutral park. Winds are blowing 17 mph out to left-center, creating one of the best power environments on the slate.
The Chicago Cubs draw a great matchup against Ryan Johnson, who struggles badly vs. left-handed bats. After just 12 minor-league games, he was rushed to the majors and allowed four HRs in 14+ innings, including three to lefties in just 25 plate appearances (.455 AVG).
Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the best chance for the Cubs to take advantage of this.
With the total already touching 10 in most markets, this shapes up as one of the top home run spots on Monday’s board.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network West
Today’s HR parlay
| Munetaka Murakami |
Bet Now +12355 |
| Kazuma Okamoto |
|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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