Let's finish the week off in a big way after Yordan Alvarez decided to go deep in Game 2 after we bet him to go yard in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader.
It's May, which means it's getting nicer, and it's time to pick off those MLB player props.
I want a piece of the White Sox bats vs. German Marquez and the San Diego bullpen, and the Blue Jays can stack runs vs. a starter they've already tagged once this year.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 1.
Best MLB home run props today
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Miguel Vargas
Jesus Sanchez
Home run picks for Friday, May 1
Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+570)
The Chicago White Sox have one of the best hitting matchups on the slate, and Miguel Vargas at +570 offers the best +EV in the lineup.
Vargas has boosted his OPS from .593 to .805 over the last 10 days, powered by four homers. He’s drawing more walks than strikeouts and is seeing the ball well with a .511 OBP.
The real target here is Germán Márquez and a San Diego Padres bullpen that has been hit around lately. Márquez owns some of the worst Blast Contact numbers, his fly balls are leaving the yard at a high rate, and he has one of the worst xFIPs among MLB starters.
Add in a Padres bullpen with the third-worst ERA over the last two weeks, and it sets up well for Chicago bats.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, Chicago Sports Network
Home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+540)
Let’s take a left-handed bat vs. Simeon Woods Richardson, who is firmly circled as a fade.
He faced the Toronto Blue Jays three starts ago and got shelled for five runs while lasting just 12 outs, with Toronto putting up 10 runs in that game.
Outside of José Quintana, Woods Richardson owns the worst xFIP among today’s starters, and his Blast Contact numbers are also near the bottom. He’s allowed a home run in every start this year, and the Jays benefit from recent familiarity.
The Minnesota Twins bullpen could also give it up, carrying a 5.40 ERA over the last 14 days — the fourth-worst mark in baseball over that stretch.
Jesús Sánchez at this price is the play for me. His swing speed ranks among the best on the team, and his fast-swing rate trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I’ll take him over Dalton Varsho, who is 50 points shorter.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, SN1
- HR picks: 9-52, -4.9u units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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