Everybody loves a long ball — but we love them even more when there's a chance to make some sweet, sweet cash off them, which is exactly what we're looking to do with FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works is that every Tuesday, you place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
The MLB schedule today has an interesting mix of solid pitchers, struggling guys, and relative unknowns — and I've sorted through the MLB odds to find two of the best matchups to target, along with some good MLB player props and the best value for the game based on FanDuel's MLB home run odds against other major operators.
So let's go deep with the best FanDuel Dinger Tuesday plays for May 16, 2023.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday best values
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (Oriole Park at Camden Yards, 6:35 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Silseth | 0.00 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 52.0 |
| Dean Kremer | 1.51 | 13 | 40.9 | 10.6 | 47.4 |
Hitters to target
Ignore the zeroes there for Silseth — he's pitched just 8 1/3 innings across four outings this season — but what has me looking at the Los Angeles Angels righty as someone to fade: He had a 6.59 ERA and seven dingers allowed in just 28 2/3 innings last year, plus he has a 52% hard-hit rate in limited 2023 action.
There's a slight wind blowing out to right field tonight, which should benefit lefty hitters, so you can look at Gunnar Henderson (+600) or Cedric Mullins (+600), plus switch-hitters Adley Rutschman (+500) and Anthony Santander (+350), all of whom have 4+ homers against righties this season. Santander's 56.3% fly-ball rate makes him extra appealing, as well as the 49.1% FB rate from righty Jorge Mateo (+870), who also has a team-leading .224 ISO (and four dingers) vs. righties this year.
Kremer has strung together two start quality starts after a rough beginning for the Baltimore Orioles that saw him give up seven homers in his first 24 2/3 innings. He's really struggled vs. lefties this year (.350 opponent BA and four HR), so Shohei Ohtani is the obvious choice at +320 — especially after seeing this moonshot yesterday — and he also is the best +EV play for this game, per THE BAT. There's really nobody else to target for the Halos from the left side, but you could still look at powerful righty Hunter Renfroe (eight HR, .273 ISO vs. RHP) at +420, Brandon Drury (52.4% FB rate, .260 ISO, five HR vs. RHP) at +520, or Mike Trout (+300) because, well, he's Mike Trout.
Best betting value: Gunnar Henderson (+600)
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field, 8:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson* | 1.85 | 16.3 | 37.7 | N/A | N/A |
| Chase Anderson | 0.00 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 20.0 |
*Rates from Triple-A Louisville
Hitters to target
We're dealing with more unknowns here, mainly the MLB debut of Williamson for the Cincinnati Reds. His Triple-A HR/9 and fly-ball rate look reasonable this year, but it's a little deceiving: In four home starts at Louisville Slugger Field (a noted pitcher's park), he has a 3.66 ERA and zero home runs in 19 2/3 innings. Away from home, however, he's allowed a whopping seven homers (and a 10.67 ERA) in just 14 1/3 innings.
And guess what? It doesn't get more pitcher-unfriendly than Coors Field, especially with the wind blowing out (Ballpark Pal's Park Factors has it upgraded by 17% for home runs today).
Righties have done all the long-ball damage against the young southpaw, so the best Colorado Rockies players to target would be Kris Bryant (+340) and Randal Grichuk (who has the most favorable projection from THE BAT) at +470, or take a flier on switch-hitter Jurickson Profar at +600, as he has a 38.7% fly-ball rate vs. LHP this year, despite having yet to go deep against a southpaw in 2023.
There are also plenty of Cincy hitters to target against Anderson, who was claimed off waivers last week. The journeyman righty has yet to allow a dinger in five MLB innings this season, but gave up four homers in 23 innings in Triple-A this year. His cutter/4-seam/changeup mix is not great against a Reds lineup that struggles mostly against breaking balls.
Anderson actually has reverse splits, so look at Reds righty Spencer Steer (four HR, 44.4% FB rate vs. RHP) at +600, as well as Jonathan India (+680) and Wil Myers (+680). You can also target red-hot lefty slugger Jake Fraley (+560), as he is hitting .309 with a team-leading five HR vs. righties this season.
Best betting value: Randal Grichuk (+470)
Last week's recap:
- NYM at CIN: Four HR
- LAD at MIL: Five HR
- SD at MIN: One HR
- Game with most HR: LAD/MIL, STL/CHC, OAK/NYY (Five HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
