The greatest rivalry in sports writes another chapter tonight as the New York Yankees play host to the Boston Red Sox. But only one side might consider this a rivalry at the moment.
The Yanks, led by another historic season from Aaron Judge, are the class of the American League East at 38-23 while the BoSox have stumbled their way to a 30-34 record.
The difference in the odds between the two is telling. New York is starting a guy with an ERA above 5.00 and is still a -190 favorite.
My Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions break it all down and bring you the best MLB picks for this classic rivalry with first pitch at Yankee Stadium scheduled for 7:05 pm ET on Friday, June 6.
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+110 at bet365)
It’s kind of crazy that this will be the first time these bitter rivals have faced off in 2025. And these teams have written very different stories to get to this point.
Led by Aaron Judge and some excellent starting pitching, the New York Yankees have played very consistently good baseball this season, helping them build a 5.5-game lead in the American League East at this point. And their +99 run differential is tops in the AL.
The difference between the two teams right now is stark. Will Warren gets the ball for the Yankees, and while he’s been impressive at times, he still has a 5.19 ERA. And New York is still a -190 favorite.
Yes, it’s been a struggle for the Boston Red Sox, who have lost eight of their last 11 ball games. The hitting has generally been there, the pitching has not. Particularly the starting pitching, which ranks 23rd in ERA and 21st in opponent expected batting average.
Boston was relying on veteran guys having bounce-back seasons, and it just hasn’t worked out to this point. Case in point: tonight’s starter, Walker Buehler.
The former Dodger just doesn’t have the stuff he used to. Buehler enters this game ranked in the 36th percentile in both expected ERA and opponent xBA. And now he has to deal with Judge and this Yankees lineup.
Speaking of Judge. He’s an alien. Whose sole purpose was to come to this planet and smash baseballs.
The two-time former MVP is heading towards a third as he continues to flirt with the magical .400. He enters this game with a.392 average, a 1.250 OPS, 21 home runs, and 50 RBIs.
Just silly stuff. It’s also silly that his splits vs. right-handers are as good as they are. He’s hitting .383 with a 1.164 OPS vs. righties this season. Judges’ ability to effortlessly get the ball in the air matches up well against Buehler’s ground ball tendencies.
As noted, Judge has driven home 50 runners this season, and we’re still getting plus money to back him to drive in one tonight. I’ll take that all day.
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Will Warren Over 5.5 strikeouts
Abraham Toro Over 1.5 H/R/R
Will Warren gets his first taste of this epic rivalry, and while the Yankees’ young starter is a little raw as a pitching prospect, there’s no doubt he’s got strikeout stuff.
Warren ranks in the 88th percentile among MLB pitchers with a 29.5% strikeout rate. He’s started May by striking out seven or more batters in five straight starts before getting rocked by the Dodgers last time out.
The Red Sox have the fifth-highest K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Let’s add Over 5.5 strikeouts to this same-game parlay.
But Warren still gets hit hard. He ranks in the 48th percentile in xBA and the Bottom 6% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. A solid Boston lineup can have success tonight.
So, let’s give some love to Abraham Toro. The journeyman infielder is locked in. He’s hitting .345 with a .933 OPS over his last 16 games and has gone Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs seven times in his last 13 starts. He goes Over again tonight.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees live odds
Red Sox vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +140 | New York -165
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-135) | New York -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games for +9.87 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, 6-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (4-3, 4.44 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (3-3, 5.19 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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