Great Britain vs USA World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: America Flexes its Muscles Against the Brits

This upcoming Group C matchup is about as lopsided as it gets when it comes to baseball. Read more to see why we're in for a complete blowout at Chase Field tonight in our Great Britain vs. USA WBC betting picks.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Mar 11, 2023 • 12:04 ET • 4 min read
Nolan Arenado Team USA WBC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Some matchups transcend sports, and Great Britain facing the United States is certainly one of them. Saturday's matchup between the two promises to be electric when the two countries face off in their opening game of Group C play.

41-year-old Adam Wainwright will take the mound in an effort to help the United States re-establish its spot at the top after winning the last iteration of the World Baseball Classic in 2017. Can Wainwright and the rest of Team USA start the tournament with fireworks, or will Great Britain do the unthinkable and topple the reigning champions?

Find out in World Baseball Classic betting picks for the USA vs. Great Britain on March 11.

Great Britain vs USA odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Great Britain USA
OTB Moneyline OTB
+8.5 (+120) Run line -8.5 (-140)
Over 13.5 (-115) Total Under 13.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 11, 2023.

Great Britain vs USA picks and predictions

As it is with any World Baseball Classic, there is always much excitement in seeing each country's roster take shape. Namely, that comes in the form of seeing where participants from the MLB end up, and for the United States that came in the form of stars such as Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, and many more.

That is particularly troublesome for Great Britain, which has just one MLB player on its pitching roster... which is reliever Ian Gibaut. That lack of high-end talent severely lowers the ceiling and floor of the team's chances of competing in this tourney.

Great Britain's opening game on Saturday night is a shining example of that, with much ambiguity still remaining on who will exactly take the mound to start that game.

On the other side of the ball, it isn't much prettier. Their most notable hitter is Mariner Harry Ford, a player that spent last season in Single-A and hit .274/.425 /.439. With no disrespect to the still-young and developing Ford, he is simply nowhere near enough to be a headlining name for a team facing a team loaded full of MLB superstars. 

Making the feat even more difficult is the incredible veteran taking the mound against him and the rest of the British lineup. 41-year-old Adam Wainwright continues to age like fine wine, last posting a respectable 3.71 ERA with the St. Louis Cardinals last year. 

Even if Wainwright is off his game tonight, there is plenty of fantastic relief talent behind Wainwright. Names like Ryan Pressly (2.98 ERA, 33 saves), Devin Williams (1.93 ERA, 41 saves + holds), and Adam Ottavino (2.06 ERA) makes this a game that is securely in the bag. 

My best bet: USA run line -8.5 (-140 at DraftKings)

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Great Britain vs USA moneyline analysis

There isn't really much more that can be added to how lopsided this game is. Team USA is just barely edged out by the Dominican Republic in outright WBC odds. In comparison, Great Britain is tied for the second-worst odds at a whopping +20,000 at most shops.

The United States batting order from top to bottom is full of studs. Trea Turner is projected to have 6.6 WAR according to Fangraphs' ZiPS projections, which is the second-highest mark of any batter and the highest of any participant on that side of the ball in the WBC. Behind him in the projected starting lineup are Arenado, Betts, and Trout.

With last year's batting champion Jeff McNeil hitting ninth, there are absolutely no weak spots in this USA lineup. 

Great Britain vs USA Over/Under analysis

It's very likely that Team USA can circle the bases enough on their own to hit the total alone, although it would obviously help if Wainwright showed his rust this evening.

In general, the WBC tends to be a more run-friendly environment. Over the last three days of tournament play, eight of nine games ended with nine or more runs, and six of those nine matches resulted in more than 12.

Great Britain vs USA game info

Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
First pitch: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX Sports

Great Britain vs USA starting pitchers

Great Britain Pitcher: TBD

Adam Wainwright: The 41-year-old has pitched 17 years in the majors and is still putting up respectable numbers. Last year, the right-hander posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.283 WHIP. A year prior, Waino posted a 3.05 ERA — his best mark since 2015.

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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