Another Monday is here, but the start of the week isn't so bad when there's a packed slate on the diamond.
Our experts have found plenty of MLB picks with value at Polymarket, highlighted by the Phillies and Brewers winning on Aug. 31.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 |
49% |
 Jon Metler: Brewers ML |
50% |
 Dustin Saracini: Rays -1.5 |
43% |
 Joe Osborne: Phillies ML |
53% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
There are still some flat 8s on the board this morning for a game projected for nearly 10 total runs, with a fair probability of 56% on the 8.5-run total.
Aaron Nola is in decent form over his last four starts, but he still gives up dingers at one of the highest rates in baseball and ranks among the Bottom 20 MLB starters in barrel rate (Barrel%) since June 1.
On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is a perfect fade candidate. He's coming off his biggest workload of the season at 103 pitches, and his numbers are starting to regress toward his expected numbers after some unsustainable production.
He's allowed four home runs over his last two starts, with nine runs allowed. Looking at the later innings, both clubs sport bullpen ERAs that rank in the bottom half of the league.
This SP matchup is one where the total should not be 8.0, which is why the market is moving that way.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
This is obviously a critical game and series for both teams. The Brewers don't want to give the Cubs any life in the NL Central race, while Chicago is running out of time to close the gap on Milwaukee — which currently holds an eight-game lead.
This wager comes down to the depth and swing-and-miss ability of the Brewers' bullpen. Both teams are likely to manage this game aggressively, and with Kyle Harrison and Clay Holmes on the mound, I don't expect either starter to work deep.
That gives Milwaukee an edge, as I trust its bullpen to win the middle-relief innings and bridge the gap to the back end. The Brewers are trading at 50 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us enough of an edge to hit the button on Milwaukee.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Marquee, Brewers.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays -1.5
Price: 43¢ at Polymarket
I just can't quit the Rays — and for good reason. They're the fourth-best cover team in baseball (55.2%) and should have no problem with the Mets today.
Robert Stock has been as shaky as they come for New York, allowing seven earned runs off 10 hits against the Brewers his last time on the mound.
With an xERA of 4.90 this year, he'll struggle to keep one of the most potent offenses in baseball off the basepaths. A struggling starter with a taxed bullpen behind him usually isn't a recipe for success.
I'll take Tampa to dominate from first pitch, and I'm playing this up to 48 cents at Polymarket.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SNY, Rays.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
Aaron Nola has found his form at the right time of the season. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts while posting at least seven strikeouts in four straight.
The same can’t be said for Brandon Pfaadt, who's been knocked around for nine earned runs over his last two outings. Philadelphia also holds clear hitting and bullpen advantages.
Over the past two weeks, the Phillies rank seventh in OPS against righties compared to 21st for Arizona, while the bullpens rank eighth and 23rd in ERA.
The Phillies look like undervalued favorites here and are well positioned to extend their 13-2 tear in pursuit of the top wild-card spot.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees moneyline | 54% |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Angels predictions | |
| Mets vs. Rays Under 8.5 | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Mets vs. Rays predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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