The dominant Tampa Bay Rays lineup draws a dream spot against a struggling Robert Stock when the New York Mets visit Tropicana Field, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET
Tampa is a heavy favorite at a 62% implied probability on the moneyline, and the pitching mismatch shapes my Mets vs. Rays predictions.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31.
Who will win Mets vs Rays today: Rays -1.5 (43%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Robert Stock gives the Tampa Bay Rays a clear path to winning by multiple runs, and at 43%, I prefer the Rays run line to paying 62% on the moneyline. Stock has been dreadful this season, carrying a 7.40 ERA while opponents hit .307 against him.
His 4.90 xERA suggests he’s pitched a bit better than that ugly number, but even the kinder mark leaves a wide gap behind a locked-in Ian Seymour and a Tampa Bay staff that has been dominant lately.
If Seymour and the bullpen keep the New York Mets around two or three runs, Stock hands the Rays a clean path to the 5-2 or 6-3 result we need.
I’d play Tampa Bay -1.5 to 46%.
COVERS INTEL: Ian Seymour has settled into a groove, posting a 3.20 ERA with 49 strikeouts across 39 1/3 innings over his last seven appearances.
Mets vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)
The Under at 8.5 is the play, built on the Rays’ pitching edge and a Mets offense that hasn’t done enough lately. New York is batting just .242 with 8.2 hits per game over its last 10, and while it has shown some pop, it hasn’t strung together the sustained scoring a big number requires.
The other side of the handicap is Tampa Bay’s own bats, which have cooled. The Rays are hitting .234 with a .347 slugging and 7.7 hits per game over their last 10, so something like five or six Rays runs is more likely than an eight-run outburst.
The market context is useful, too. The broader market has this game at 8.0 runs, so the 8.5 we’re getting is a meaningful extra half-run, especially when the likeliest Tampa Bay-winning scores are 5-2, 5-3, or 6-2.
I’d play the Under to 57%. At 8.0, I’d pass.
Mets vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero (24%)
Junior Caminero hit his 37th home run on Sunday — pushing his hitting streak to 13 games — and he’s been Tampa Bay’s hottest bat, hitting .378 over his last 10 games.
His contact profile backs the power, headlined by a 93.0 mph average exit velocity and a 13.1% barrel rate. Caminero can attack Stock’s cutter, four-seamer, and sinker, which make up roughly 79% of his arsenal.
At 24%, we’re paying for Caminero’s status as Tampa Bay’s premier power threat, but the matchup justifies making him the selection over a longer shot.
I’d play Caminero to 26% for a quarter unit.
- ML/RL bets: 4-7, -3.40 units
- Over/Under bets: 8-3, +4.77 units
Mets vs Rays weather
Tropicana Field is a fixed-dome ballpark, so weather is a non-factor tonight.
Mets vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Mets 39% | Rays 62%
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (56%) | Rays -1.5 (43%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (46%) | Under 8.5 (55%)
Mets vs Rays trend
Tampa Bay’s pitching staff owns a 2.80 ERA over its last 10 games, a run of dominance that backs both the Rays run line and the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Rays.
How to watch Mets vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Monday, Aug. 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Rays.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Robert Stock (0-3, 7.40 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ian Seymour (9-5, 4.21 ERA) |
Mets vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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