Friday is finally here, and we've got a loaded 15-game slate to close out the month!
Headlined by the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the Boston Red Sox in the nightcap at Chavez Ravine, here are our best MLB picks for July 31.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: Dodgers ML |
-117 |
 Joe Osborne: MIL -1.5 |
-110 |
 Todd Cordell: TEX ML |
+110 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Ranger Suarez will make his second start since returning from a groin injury, and the Boston Red Sox are likely to remain cautious with his workload. In Suarez's first outing back against the Blue Jays on July 26, the southpaw tossed four scoreless innings on just 64 pitches while striking out six batters.
Now facing the Los Angeles Dodgers' disciplined lineup, another abbreviated outing seems likely, forcing Boston's middle relievers to cover significant innings. It's also a difficult matchup for Suarez's pitch profile. He attacks the bottom of the strike zone with a heavy sinker designed to generate weak ground balls, but several of the Dodgers' right-handed hitters, including Andy Pages and Mookie Betts, have swing paths built to punish pitches down in the zone.
Polymarket has Los Angeles priced as a 54-cent favorite, but I make the Dodgers closer to 58 cents, which is why I'm hitting the button.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN, SportsNet LA
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers -1.5
Price: 52¢ (-110) at Polymarket
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a great bounce-back spot Friday after getting embarrassed 16-3 by the Giants on Wednesday.
Milwaukee has been great in this spot, going an MLB-best 11-4 after a day off while consistently taking care of business following losses. This matchup also favors the Brew Crew, as Los Angeles Angels youngster Ryan Johnson brings a shaky 7.34 ERA into this start after being lit up several times this season.
With Milwaukee heating up at the plate, ranking second in OPS over the past week, and the Angels sitting 27th in OPS in July, Shane Drohan should have plenty of support to help the Brewers win comfortably.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, FDSN West
Todd Cordell's expert pick: Rangers moneyline
Price: 48¢ (+110) at Polymarket
Nathan Eovaldi and Hunter Brown both enter play with inflated ERAs over the last month. However, Eovaldi’s underlying profile is a lot more promising.
His xFIP sits at 2.73 during that span, trailing only Suarez and Dylan Cease among today’s projected starters. Brown sits way down with a 5.04 xFIP, not far off from the 5.40 ERA.
The Texas Rangers sit seventh in wOBA and fifth in ISO in July, so their offense is in excellent form as well. Expect that to shine through and back Texas to -105.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Apple TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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