Our MLB picks for Friday are picking on the Astros, as we love the value on both fading Houston and the total in that game, based on prices from Polymarket.
See why our baseball experts are backing both angles of that game — plus an Under in the South Side of Chicago.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: HOU/CIN o9.5 |
+108 |
 Jon Metler: CIN ML |
-133 |
 Joe Osborne: SEA/CHW u8.5 |
-122 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/Reds Over 9.5
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
The wind is blowing out at Great American Ball Park, and this sets up as a battle between two of the worst bullpens in baseball — that are likely to be heavily involved today. The Cincinnati Reds are sending out Nick Lodolo, who is making his first start of the year after throwing just 79 pitches in his last rehab outing (while dealing with a blister). On the other side, for the Houston Astros, starter Mike Burrows has allowed 8+ hits in four of his seven starts, and he's much worse on the road. Late scoring is also a likelihood, with the Reds bullpen carrying a 7.79 ERA over the last 14 days — and also taxed after getting embarrassed in Chicago — and Houston not far behind at 7.44.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Reds moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Mike Burrows has been struggling to locate his four-seam fastball, which is a dangerous problem heading into a start at Great American Ballpark. In a bigger stadium (like Houston's Daikin Park), those mistakes might turn into harmless fly balls — in Cincinnati, they can quickly become home runs. Burrows has allowed a .341 batting average and a 1.016 OPS against lefty hitters, and four of Cincinnati's first five projected hitters bat from the left side, including switch-hitter Elly De La Cruz, giving the Reds ample opportunity to pressure him early. The market has Cincinnati priced as 57-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 62 cents, which gives me enough value to back the home side.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Mariners/White Sox Under 8.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
A pair of emerging starters, backed by bullpens in rock-solid form, sets the stage for a low-scoring game in Chicago. Emerson Hancock gets an extra day of rest after striking out 14 in his last outing, and he’s been excellent on the road with a 2.41 ERA. Sean Burke has been equally as sharp at home, posting a 2.66 ERA and allowing zero earned runs in back-to-back starts. Add two offenses ranked 24th or worse in home/road scoring — plus the wind blowing in — and the Under looks like a great way to kick off the weekend.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| CLE ML | -145 |
| Read analysis in our Twins vs. Guardians predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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