Dodgers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Urias Continues Strong Stretch in San Diego

Over his last 12 starts, Dodgers lefty Julio Urias hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any outing. It's no surprise, then, that L.A. is 16-1 in their last 17 games where the lefty has taken the hill. Expect more of the same vs. the Padres.

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2022 8:37 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Julio Urias Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have what could be an exciting NL West matchup on Wednesday evening when the Los Angeles Dodgers meet the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their scheduled three-game series. 

Dodgers closer Craig Kimbrel walked Padres catcher Jorge Alfaro with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th to secure a 4-3 victory for San Diego on Tuesday. This allowed the Padres to move within four games of clinching an NL Wild Card.

Can Los Angeles bounce back tonight? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Padres. 

Dodgers vs Padres best odds

Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions

It isn’t often we get a price like -137 for the best team in baseball to pick up a win, and that number with Julio Urias on the slab almost feels like stealing.  

The Dodgers have won 16 of his past 17 starts and are 11-5 this season when the crafty lefty takes the mound as the away favorite. That’s real filth right there.

The last five starts have been as impressive as any this season for Urias. He’s allowed just seven earned runs with 27 strikeouts over 30 1-3 frames, and hasn’t given up two or more earned runs since getting rocked at home for five earned by the Chicago Cubs on July 10, 2022 (a span of 12 consecutive outings). 

Two of those most recent five starts were also victories against the Padres. Urias allowed three runs on seven hits across 13 innings in those two games.

The Padres have a solid lineup, but they are inconsistent and have slashed .159/.259/.317 with 27 strikeouts over 126 career at-bats vs Urias. Manny Machado has had some success with four bombs against Urias, but the rest of the lineup ... not so much.

Joe Musgrove has had mixed results over his past five outings but has allowed one earned run with a dozen Ks over his past 11 frames. The veteran righty yields 1.51 home runs per nine at Petco and that is a recipe for disaster against a Dodgers offense ranking first in both ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

This particular cast of Dodgers bats has slashed .262/.329./.470 with 36 Ks alongside seven bombs over 149 at-bats vs. the Padres righty. Justin Turner has three of those dingers and if he plays could make for a good home run prop bet.

The Dodgers have an outstanding bullpen with a team ERA of 2.97. Tuesday’s walk-off bases-loaded walk was an aberration and if this game is close, look for that pen to close the door on the Friars. 

Finally, Los Angeles is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in San Diego and 38-16 in the last 54 meetings with the Padres. 

My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-137 at WynnBET)

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Dodgers vs Padres moneyline analysis

Los Angeles has dominated San Diego this season, and I don’t expect that to change on Wednesday against Musgrove. 

The Dodgers also lead the majors in runs scored and are fourth with 150 home runs vs. righties this season. Musgrove surrenders 1.5 bombs per nine at Petco and considering the Dodgers' past success against the hurler, they could get after him early in this contest. 

Los Angeles is 51-23 as the away favorite this season and has won 16 of Urias' past 17 starts.

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 7.5 runs, and maybe that number is a bit low for Wednesday’s ballgame.

We have solid pitching in this tilt, but we also have a Dodgers side offering nearly five runs of support behind Urias and the Padres back Musgrove with 4.86 runs per outing.

Finally, the Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego and 6-1 in the last six meetings between these two NL West rivals.

Dodgers vs Padres trend to know

The Dodgers are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in San Diego. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Wednesday, September 28, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet LA, Bally Sports San Diego

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (17-7, 2.40 ERA): The lefty has allowed seven earned runs with 27 whiffs over 30 1-3 frames over his last five. Urias posts an above-average 2.70 xERA alongside a 3.78 xFIP and his 3.51 away xFIP suggests maybe Urias is a better pitcher away from Dodger Stadium. 

Joe Musgrove (10-7, 3.12 ERA): Musgrove has given up a dozen earned runs with 31 punchouts over his past 27 1-3 innings. Musgrove sports a solid 3.29 xERA with a terrific 3.24 xFIP, but his 3.68 xFIP at Petco might mean he’s been a bit lucky pitching at home. 

Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries

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