An attention-demanding three-game interleague series gets underway Monday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers (53-39) head to Camden Yards to face the Baltimore Orioles (57-35). Dave Roberts’ side has won six of its last seven games and stands atop the NL West standings by 1.5 games.
Remarkably, they're still the cooler side with the Orioles entering red-hot as winners of eight straight and are just a single game behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
According to MLB odds, Game 1 is lined as a pick ‘em. Rather than targeting a side, I’ve got my eye on an MLB prop for the visiting side with my best bet.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Orioles on Monday, July 17.
Dodgers vs Orioles odds
Dodgers vs Orioles predictions
This series figures to be a dandy as both squads are in terrific form, combining to win 14 of their last 15 contests and something will have to give.
Grayson Rodriguez gets the call for Baltimore, and he’s an interesting case. The 23-year-old pitcher began the year as one of the top prospects in the game but has been shelled against big-league hitters, posting a disappointing 7.35 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.
To no one’s surprise, he’s dominated Minor Leaguers since his demotion earlier this year. He has a sterling 1.69 ERA across seven starts at Triple-A with a 54:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While those numbers look pretty, it’s a stark contrast to what he’s posted against the big boys, and I’ll wait to believe it until I see it.
Los Angeles simply destroys right-handed pitching, ranking fourth in wRC+ (112) and fifth in wOBA (.335). This lineup has a terrific approach at the plate that involves staying patient (second in the MLB with a 10.4% BB rate) while hitting for power (.198 ISO, also second).
He struggles mightily with his command (10% BB rate) and while that hasn’t bitten him at the lower levels, it’s a concern against this patient, power-hitting Dodgers lineup that will wait for the right pitch and punish the opposing pitcher once he makes a mistake.
Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed batters, surrendering a .329 batting average and eight home runs in only 88 plate appearances. He’s allowed nearly half of those batters (37) to reach base. That’s troubling news against a Dodgers lineup that will likely feature at least five lefties, including the ultra-dangerous Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy.
The rookie hurler has also had his fair share of troubles at home, posting a gruesome 9.55 ERA and 2.22 WHIP across five starts at Camden Yards. With the wind blowing out to left field at 8.1 mph at first pitch, the conditions seem ripe for a productive day at the dish for the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is 54-34 O/U to their team total across the last 88 games. I’ll be placing my best bet on the Boys in Blue to go Over their team total of 4.5 on Monday, which I believe is a fair bargain considering all factors.
My best bet: Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Dodgers vs Orioles same-game parlay
Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-110)
Max Muncy to hit a home run (+350)
Grayson Rodriguez 3+ walks issued (+110)
This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet, LA’s team total Over 4.5. The first prop I'm adding is for Muncy to hit a home run at +350. Rodriguez has been getting absolutely shelled by lefties this season, surrendering eight home runs across 88 plate appearances. Muncy has hit three home runs in his last 10 games and is known to destroy right-handed pitching, blasting 55 home runs since 2021.
The third and final leg will feature Rodriguez issuing at least three walks. The former No. 11-overall pick struggles mightily with his command, allowing 4.17 walks per nine innings. While the staff claims that he’s been working to fix these issues in the minors, I’ll need more convincing. He’s allowed 4.14 walks per nine innings at Triple-A this season with an 11.2% BB rate. Dave Roberts’ side is notoriously patient at the dish and has a 10.5% BB rate against right-handers in July.
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Dodgers vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This one is essentially a pick ‘em with most books offering -110 on either side.
I don’t have a confident enough read on the moneyline to place a wager, but I do prefer the Dodgers’ side of things. I believe they have the better lineup (113 wRC+ compared to the Orioles’ 107 wRC+) and the more reliable starting pitcher.
Emmet Sheehan gets the nod for LA and he’s posted a 3.25 xERA across four starts. While he’s not striking out as many batters as expected (19.5% strikeout rate in MLB, 41.7% at Double-A), in-season projections like his odds of bumping up that number to somewhere around 23%.
The rookie has a great fastball, ranking in the 80th percentile in velocity and in the 69th in spin rate. If he does struggle, the bullpen behind him has finally been pitching better lately after a horrendous start to the season, which is encouraging.
There is some variance in the total as both 9 and 9.5 are available at the time of this writing. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager.
The weather could play a factor in this contest as the forecast calls for sunny skies with a temperature of 87 degrees and winds of 8.1 mph blowing out to left field at the time of first pitch.
Since I’m on the Over for the Dodgers’ team total, I naturally lean toward the full game total Over as well.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers 54-34 O/U to their team total across the last 88 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Orioles
Dodgers vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Monday, July 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, SportsNet Los Angeles |
Starting pitchers
Emmet Sheehan (2-0, 4.35 ERA): Sheehan looked like a world-beater when he allowed just two runs and three hits across his first two starts and 12 innings. He’s since shown signs of mortality, surrendering eight earned runs across his last two starts and 8 2/3 innings. The metrics are all over the place, as his 3.25 xERA is encouraging but his 4.78 FIP and 5.38 xFIP are not.
Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 7.35 ERA): Big things were expected out of Rodriguez after he posted a 2.20 ERA across 69 2/3 innings and a 1.96 ERA across 41 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2022 and 2023, respectively. That success has simply not translated to MLB, as his 6.02 xERA and 5.93 FIP offer few signs of encouragement. Two bright spots in his profile are his 26.5% K-rate and 3.90 xFIP, so there are still reasons for hope if you look hard enough.
