Two of the top teams in the National League look to get a series-clinching win when the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets face off on Sunday Night Baseball.
I’m backing Mets’ slugger Pete Alonso to flash his power in my Sunday Night Baseball player props and MLB picks for May 25.
Dodgers vs Mets Sunday Night Baseball props
-
Smith o0.5 walks (+104) - Freeman o1.5 TB (+133)
-
Alonso o1.5 TB (-106)
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Dodgers vs Mets props for Sunday Night Baseball
Will Smith Over 0.5 walks (+104 at Caesars)
When it comes to drawing free passes, few in the majors do it as well as Will Smith. The catcher leads the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 17.9% walk rate, which puts him in the 99th percentile in the majors.
Smith has drawn walks in each of his last four games, with six in total over that span. That includes a pair of walks on Friday night against the New York Mets.
And part of that is because he’s locked in right now. Over his last 10 games, Smith is hitting .429 with three extra-base hits, and has drawn 10 walks as pitchers look to work around him.
Kodai Senga ranks in the 24th percentile in walk rate, and while he’s limited hits in his starts he’s issued 13 walks in his last four starts. Three of his last four starts have seen him surrender at least three walks, despite pitching fewer than 22 innings.
With Smith posting a .336 average on the season, Senga will likely be very cautious when facing him. Senga’s issued 13 of his 22 walks this season with nobody on base, and he might be more willing to let Smith take a free base than let him get ahold of something.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+133 at Caesars)
Freddie Freeman hasn’t enjoyed this series very much, going hitless in seven ABs and getting plunked on Saturday. But over half his appearances have come against left-handed pitchers.
His matchup with Senga gives him a chance to get back on track. Senga’s splits are vastly different when facing lefties, with a WHIP nearly twice as high as when he has a same-side advantage. And Freeman has posted an outstanding .367/.441/.679 split against RHP in 2025.
Freeman has 19 XBH in 109 ABs when he’s had the pleasure of facing a righty. And his hitless series is beyond an anomaly, given his .378 average in the month of May. He’s notched 11 XBH this month, and has a 12.5% barrel rate so far this season — his highest mark since 2020.
According to BATX, Freeman is a Top 10 hitter in today’s slate, and having only one possible LHP from the bullpen will be a major advantage to him. Add in his high rate of fly balls sent the other way, and one of the shortest left-field porches in baseball, and I love him to get an XBH at this price.
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (-106 at Caesars)
Pete Alonso hasn’t notched a single XBH in his last six games. In fact, has just five singles in that time, covering a span of 23 ABs.
He’s prime to rebound, and a matchup with Landon Knack is a terrific spot to do so. Alonso is hitting .301 and slugging .541 this season against RHP, and he ranks in the 97th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velo, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.
Knack ranks in the 3rd percentile in average exit velo, and has one of the worst hard-hit rates in the majors. He’s also given up two home runs in each of his last two starts.
Right-handed hitters aren’t bothered by the same-sided matchup either, as they’re hitting .311 and slugging .622 this season when facing him. And four of his five home runs allowed have been surrendered to RHH.
Alonso is second-shortest odds to hit a home run in this game, with +225 on the board. He’s hitting towards that aforementioned LF fence, against a pitcher who can’t stop giving up the longball. I’ll bank on him getting one at least into the gap, if not over the fence, as he registers his first XBH in a week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
