It's a new week and a new slate of baseball. One of the series opening up is the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
Arizona is surging. Cleveland has played well, too, despite back-to-back losses. Each team will have their eyes on the postseason and making a run once they get there. With each passing week, the games increase in importance for both teams. This opening week series is no different.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Guardians predictions on Monday, August 5
Diamondbacks vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Many signs are pointing to runs this evening, and that's where we're headed for today's best bet. I projected a total of 9.3, so getting a full run of value feels like an edge you can't pass up.
Simply put, I have Logan Allen as one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB this season, and nothing about that is controversial. One of the best measures of this is his expected ERA, which is above 5.5 and has settled into the bottom 5% of the sport. Three of his last four starts have gone over, and he's been a big part of that, allowing four or more runs in all three. Today, he faces a few particular issues.
The Arizona Diamondbacks can attack Allen where he struggles the most, and that's giving up hard contact.
He ranks in the bottom 5% of baseball in all three key metrics: average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. The Snakes are good in this regard overall and do it well against lefties. They'll come into this one with the 10th-best hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers in baseball and the 8th-best isolated power rating. That's plenty good enough against a pitcher who has been so poor this season. The "other numbers" aren't bad either, as Arizona comes in at the Top 5 in slugging percentage, batting average, and baBIP.
On the other side is Zac Gallen, who can't seem to figure it out on the road. The splits tell the story. Gallen's road ERA is almost two full runs higher than his home one. In addition, he's had issues similar to those of his counterpart despite being a much more efficient pitcher.
He'll come into this game with only slightly better numbers than Allen regarding the hard-hit ball, with a hard-hit rate in the bottom ten percentile and average exit velocity. Cleveland has kind of sneakily been one of the better offenses in baseball, and I'm expecting them to have success here. Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas, and Jose Ramirez all have power numbers that place them roughly in the 20th percentile of the league. That should be enough to get after Gallen this evening.
It will be warm in Cleveland, with winds blowing out and ideal conditions for fireworks — expect them and bet accordingly.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5
We're pairing the Over with Marte to go Over 1.5 bases.
This is a simple analysis for me: Take the player who hits the ball the hardest among all players today against a pitcher who gives up so much hard contact. It helps that Marte's numbers go up against left-handed pitching, too.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians odds
Diamondbacks vs Guardians live odds
Diamondbacks vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+125) | Cleveland +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Arizona -132 | Cleveland +112
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Diamondbacks vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona has dominated this head-to-head series recently. They've won two of the last three games and seven of the previous ten.
- The Diamondbacks have been hot overall, too. They've won eight of their last ten games and made bettors +4.3 units.
- Despite splitting a four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles, the Guardians have made bettors money with six wins in their last ten games.
- Cleveland has taken some early action. After opening at around +112, its money line has moved as low as +105 in some spots.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 55 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Guardians.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 8-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, BSGL |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.56 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Logan Allen (8-4, 5.67 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
