The Chicago Cubs are small -115 favorites in their series opener against Cincinnati.
My Cubs vs. Reds predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the home team to come out on top in a high-scoring divisional matchup.
Who will win Cubs vs Reds today: Cincinnati Reds (-105)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit lefties very well of late. They rank 13th in average, sixth in ISO, and second in hard hit rate since June 1.
While Shota Imanaga is in his best form of the season, his five recent starts came against the Rockies (x2), Mets, Padres, and Cardinals. This Reds attack is more likely to do some damage.
Hunter Greene was not himself in his season debut, but he has allowed just two runs over his previous three starts against the Chicago Cubs.
I’m expecting better this time out and would back the Reds to -115.
COVERS INTEL: Imanaga has allowed a road BABIP of .167 over the last two months, a highly unsustainable number that will not hold up over time.
Cubs vs Reds Over/Under pick: Over 9.0 (-120)
Imanaga has struggled mightily to limit the long ball. He has allowed 2.7 homers per nine innings over the last two months, which shouldn’t be all that surprising given his 11th-percentile ranking in barrel rate.
The Reds have bullied lefties with their ability to hit for power, and that profile sets up for success against Imanaga.
Greene has electric stuff, but he’s still finding his groove. There isn’t much margin for error facing the Cubs, who slot fourth in ISO and sixth in hard-hit rate since June 1.
Bet the Over to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 54-44, +0.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 53-41-4, +7.04 units
Cubs vs Reds weather
Temperatures in the mid 80s are expected with little to no wind. Clear boost to bats in an already hitter-friendly ballpark.
Cubs vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -115 | Reds -105
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-120) | Under 9.0 (+100)
Cubs vs Reds trend
Cincinnati has won four straight home games against Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds.
How to watch Cubs vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Friday, July 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Reds.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (5-7, 4.28 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Hunter Greene (0-1, 21.60 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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