The Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets face off in MLB action on Tuesday night. This is the second contest in a three-game set at Citi Field with the Mets running away with the opener last night.
That said, they have been one of the worst money teams in the league this season and with the Cubs going 15-5 in their last 20 games, they enter tonight as -125 favorites in our MLB odds.
Here are my best free Cubs vs. Mets MLB betting picks for August 8.
Cubs vs Mets odds
Cubs vs Mets predictions
The Chicago Cubs were hammered 11-2 in this series opener last night. However, they had entered New York having won five of their previous six games and are now three games above .500.
Last night's victory snapped a six-game losing streak for the New York Mets who have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball, sitting fourth in the NL East with a 51-61 record despite the highest payroll in MLB history.
The Cubs are sending Jameson Taillon to the hill while the Mets are responding with Carlos Carrasco. Although both veterans have struggled this season, Taillon has been far better lately.
Taillon had been one of the worst pitchers in the majors for the first half of the season but has been sharp over the last month. In his first 14 starts of the year, he had pitched to a 6.93 ERA and a .296 OBA but in his last five, he's posted a 2.08 ERA with a .227 OBA. as his 4.08 ERA and 4.16 FIP in 321 2/3 innings over the previous two seasons shows.
After putting together a solid season with the Mets in 2022, Carrasco has been terrible this year. He has pitched to a 6.60 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP, and a .299 OBA through 16 starts. He's been even worse lately pitching to a 12.33 ERA with a 2.48 WHIP and a .438 OBA over his last four starts.
The Cubs have been more productive at the plate than the Mets this season and that gap has been even wider lately. Over the last 30 days, the Mets lead the majors with an OPS of .861 while the Mets are 27th with an OPS of just .679.
With the Cubs being far superior to the Mets over the last month, expect them to bounce back from last night's loss.
My best bet: Cubs moneyline (-125 at bet365)
Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay
Cubs ML (-125)
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Nick Madrigal Over 0.5 singles (-165)
Carrasco has been terrible this year so not only are we fading the Mets, but we'll also back a pair of Cubs hitters.
Bellinger seems to have recaptured his 2019 MVP form. The left-handed slugger has been red-hot lately, slashing .429/.464/.698 in 33 games since the start of July.
Madrigal doesn't hit for much power but he does an excellent job of making contact and is batting .311 since the start of June. He's picked up at least a single in five of his last six games.
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Cubs vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened as -145 road favorites for this contest before shortening to -125 by 10 a.m. ET.
The Mets have been the worst money team in the NL this year, losing 21.34 units on the moneyline. That said, they've been a bit better at home where they've 27-23 and are -3.36 units.
With both pitchers struggling this season, the Over/Under opened at 9.5 and has stayed steady. However, with how sharp Jameson has been over the last month and New York struggling at the plate, the Under might be the call tonight.
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Trend to know
The Cubs have hit the first-five team total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.69 units / 59% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets
Cubs vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee Sports Network, SNY |
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (6-6, 5.36 ERA): Taillon is in the Bottom 15th percentile in barrel rate and expected ERA (5.11) but ranks in the Top 40th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. While allowing too much contact, he's been doing a decent job of limiting hard hits.
Carlos Carrasco (3-6, 6.60 ERA): Carrasco is in the Bottom 10th percentile of the majors in expected ERA (6.61), barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. His changeup has been his best pitch but he still relies predominantly on his four-seamer which opponents are slugging .663 against.
