The Cleveland Guardians will look for a second consecutive win over the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field on Tuesday, and the home team will turn to lefty Matthew Boyd for his 2024 season debut following Tommy John surgery last year.
Cleveland and Chicago combined for 17 runs in the series opener, and the Cubbies will send struggling righty Javier Assad to the hill tonight. Our top Cubs vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks are calling for more offense and Boyd and Assad to have their share of hiccups in the August 13 rematch.
Cubs vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Cleveland Guardians starter Matthew Boyd made his last big-league appearance on June 26 of last year, so while his minor-league numbers have been spectacular across five tune-ups, this is still a tall test against a rolling Chicago Cubs offense.
Boyd cruised through six innings on just 63 pitches in his final Triple-A start, so he’s far from fully stretched out, and I’m not expecting him to top 80 pitches on Tuesday. As a result, his window to rack up strikeouts will be partially closed before he even toes the rubber, and Chicago hasn’t been strikeout-happy against southpaws all season.
The Cubs rank 15th with a 22.1 K% against southpaws for the year, and they also have an overall 21% mark in August, which is 10th lowest in the majors. Additionally, Chicago has been more dangerous against lefties all season, and they’re sporting a fourth-ranked .346 wOBA for the month.
Additionally, while Boyd has historically racked up plenty of strikeouts throughout his career with an 8.78 K/9 and 22.7 K% as a starter, he’s never parlayed it into success on the mound. He sports a career 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 4.61 xFIP while allowing a healthy .333 wOBA across his 160 career starts, after all. I’m anticipating his pitch count climbing quickly because of an inability to cruise through the Chicago lineup efficiently tonight.
Finally, I’ve targeted this off-market FanDuel total of 4.5 strikeouts because there has been huge movement to the Under 5.5 at other shops, and I think this is the more accurate number. The Under 5.5 Ks is trading as short as -225 through DraftKings, for example.
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Cubs vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 strikeouts
Over 5.5 F5
Over 8.5
In addition to Boyd making his first start in over a year, Cubs starter Javier Assad has also struggled of late with a 4.88 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and 6.47 xFIP while also walking more batters than he’s struck out across his past six starts.
Cleveland is averaging 5.0 runs per game in August, and I’m anticipating the Guardians putting runs on the board against Assad. As noted, Chicago has been packing punch at the dish, and the Cubbies have averaged 5.4 runs per game for the month.
Both offenses are set up to score early and often again Tuesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Guardians odds
Cubs vs Guardians live odds
Cubs vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | Cleveland -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +119 | Cleveland -129
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a notable move to the Cleveland side of this moneyline, with the opening Guardians -129 steamed all the way to -149 at Pinnacle as of Tuesday morning.
- As highlighted, Assad hasn’t been sharp, and the Cleveland bullpen ranks first in the majors in both ERA (2.76) and xFIP (3.59).
- Similarly, there has been movement to the Over at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- Pinnacle opened with the Over 8.5 trading at -109, and the number has steepened to -118 as of Tuesday morning. There has been a similar five-cent move through bet365.
Cubs vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have hit the Over in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Guardians.
Cubs vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, Marquee Sports Network |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (5-3, 3.24 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Cubs vs Guardians latest injuries
Cubs vs Guardians weather
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