The second game of this NL Central series gets underway tonight with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Chicago Cubs. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a moderate -146 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Cubs vs. Brewers predictions are bullish on Milwaukee’s chances as the favorite for the second game in a row, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Cubs vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+140 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After cashing the Milwaukee Brewers run line on Memorial Day, we're going right back to the well on Tuesday as right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound. Serving as the ace for this club following the departure of Corbin Burnes to Baltimore and the injury to Brandon Woodruff, Peralta boasts a 3.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through his first 10 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are just as strong, ranking in the league's top half in xERA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This success will likely continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team Peralta has dominated over the past few seasons.
Through his past 10 meetings against the Cubs, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Meanwhile, right-handed rookie Ben Brown gets the ball for Chicago.
Brown has gotten off to a solid start bouncing between the bullpen and rotation, posting a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 12 appearances on the mound. However, his analytics suggest that regression is quickly looming.
Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 29th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Not only do the Brewers possess the starting pitching advantage, but they also boast the better bullpen.
This season, their relief pitching outranks the Cubs in ERA and xFIP. Additionally, Milwaukee is the stronger-hitting team as it paces Chicago in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Milwaukee is just too short of a favorite in this spot when you also factor in home-field advantage. I believe there's more value in backing the favorites on the run line at +140 rather than laying -146 on the moneyline, especially when you consider that each of the Brewers’ past six wins has come by 2+ runs.
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers -1.5
Over 7.5
I just think Brown is due for an implosion on the mound. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the seventh percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Those poor analytics make Brown’s solid surface-level stats completely unsustainable. This expected regression is likely to come against a powerhouse Milwaukee lineup that ranks in the Top 5 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases.
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Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers live odds
Cubs vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-176) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+146)
- Moneyline: Chicago +124 | Milwaukee -146
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cubs vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -146 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I believe the market will keep moving this line in Milwaukee's direction, given all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 7.5 and also remains at that price.
- I think it's more likely that this total goes to 8 rather than 7.5, given how well Milwaukee has swung the bats this season and how poor Brown’s analytics are.
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Cubs vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have covered the run line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.95 units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ben Brown (1-1, 3.20 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (3-3, 3.81 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
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