The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the NLDS at American Family Field. MLB odds list Milwaukee as a -155 favorite, while the total sits at seven.
My Cubs vs. Brewers prediction targets a player prop in this NLDS contest.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, October 4.
Cubs vs. Brewers Game 1 Predictions
Who will win Cubs vs Brewers Game 1
The Brewers are listed as a -155 favorite, and they should fulfill expectations of starting this series on a strong note.
Not only did Milwaukee outperform Chicago in both runs scored and total hits this season, but the Brewers will also hand the ball to ace Freddy Peralta in Game 1.
Cubs vs Brewers best bet
Pick: Freddy Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
Milwaukee Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been tremendous this season. Through 33 starts, the right-hander is 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. This year, Peralta finished in the 73rd percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 85th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 80th percentile in average exit velocity, and 90th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Perhaps his greatest strength is retiring hitters via strikeout, ranking in the 83rd percentile in whiff rate and 84th percentile in strikeout rate. As a result, Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his past five starts (excluding his limited two-inning appearance in the season’s relatively meaningless finale).
This success is likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team he has dominated over their past six meetings. Peralta is 4-1 over that stretch with a 2.67 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 10.96 strikeouts per nine innings.
From the other perspective, the current Cubs roster possesses a fade-worthy 29.3% strikeout rate and 29.9% whiff rate through 205 combined plate appearances against Peralta.
Cubs vs Brewers Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
A strong pitching performance from Peralta increases Milwaukee’s probability of winning, but the team will still need to push some runs across the plate.
One of the top candidates to do so is Brice Turang, who recorded at least one RBI in each of the final four games of the regular season.
Turang posted a .429 batting average, .571 slugging percentage, and 1.101 OPS over that stretch.
Cubs vs Brewers SGP
- Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts
- Brice Turang Over 0.5 RBI
- Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
Cubs vs Brewers home run pick for Game 1
Jackson Chourio (+475)
Cubs vs Brewers home run pick for Game 1
Another Brewers hitter to consider is Jackson Chourio. Ending the regular season in good form, Chourio hit one home run over the final two games.
He posted a .300 batting average, .700 slugging percentage, and 1.000 OPS over that span.
Cubs vs Brewers Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +130 | Milwaukee -155
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-160) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
Cubs vs Brewers trend
Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his past five full starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers.
How to watch Cubs vs Brewers and Game 1 info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 2:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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