Cubs vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Halos Smack Taillon Around

The Chicago Cubs dropped Game 1 of this interleague series against the Los Angeles Angels by a score of 7-4. Will they bounce back in Game 2?

Doing so will require a renewed effort from starter Jameson Taillon, who has been shelled this season while winning just one of his nine starts. 

The Halo’s bats have been hot lately, and they’ll look to keep that going in a favorable matchup. MLB odds list the home team as the favorite to keep things going on Wednesday, and I have my eyes on an MLB player prop for the contest.

Find out what my best bet is and more in my MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Angels on Wednesday, June 7.

Cubs vs Angels odds

Cubs vs Angels predictions

The Chicago Cubs are sending Jameson Taillon to the mound, a pitcher who's been hit very hard this year. His 7.05 ERA speaks for itself, and he’s while his peripherals aren’t quite as bad (that’s hard to do!), there are still some concerns in this spot.

Weather is supposed to be a factor as winds of 9.2 mph will be blowing out to right field throughout the game. Taillon has become an extreme flyball pitcher in 2023, posting a 45% FB% — well above his career number of 43%. 

That’s not great news, especially against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that has a respectable 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. A few fly balls could turn into home runs with the wind blowing out, especially considering Taillon’s career-high 10% barrel rate.

The Angels have had one of the better lineups in the league, ranking sixth in wRC+ (109) and seventh in wOBA (.330). Their recent performance has been even better — they have a 117 wRC+ and .342 wOBA across the last 10 days.

Given Taillon’s poor performance and the Angels’ solid lineup, I’m looking to back the Angels at the best price available. The moneyline is a bit steep although I still believe it holds value — but not enough to make it my best bet.

The other two options are Taillon to allow Over 2.5 earned runs at -115 or the Angels to go Over their 4.5-run team total at -120. I see both as likely to hit in this spot, but I’ll side with Taillon’s earned runs prop considering it required paying slightly less juice.

He’s allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his nine starts this season and has surrendered 16 earned runs across 20 2/3 innings on the road. 

My best bet: Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)

Cubs vs Angels moneyline analysis

The Angels have received a fair amount of love in the betting market, at least early. They opened at -136 but have since moved to as high as -150 as bettors are believing in the home team. 

Considering how bearish I am on Taillon, I’m inclined to support that line movement and don’t hate a play on the Angels moneyline or run line. The best price available at current is -139 on the moneyline and +140 on the -1.5 run line.

Angels starter Jaime Barria is unlikely to pitch deep into this game considering he’s mostly been used as a reliever this season and this will be just his third start.

He’s been effective enough this season that he still gives the home team the starting pitching advantage despite his limited sample size, as he’s actually thrown just three fewer innings than Taillon while posting career highs in xERA (2.70) and K-rate (25%).

The Cubs have been extremely cold at the plate lately with an unseemly .585 OPS across the last 10 days — a number which pales in comparison to the Halos across that same time span (.787).

Chicago won just once in Taillon’s nine appearances this year, while Los Angeles has come away victorious in both of Barria’s prior starts. 

Cubs vs Angels Over/Under analysis

The total has also seen a bit of line movement. After opening at 8.5, it’s jumped up to 9.5 at most books. Be sure to shop around using our odds tool before placing your wager. 

The Cubbies have been a solid if unremarkable lineup on the year, checking in at 12th in wRC+ (101) and 11th in wOBA (.321). They’ve turned into a bunch of hitless individuals lately, however, ranking 29th in both wRC+ (66) and wOBA (.268) in the last 10 days. 

Unsurprisingly given those numbers, they've cashed the Under in seven of their last eight games. They’ve also hit four straight Unders when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 

The Halos have been on the opposite side of things, going 6-2 O/U across their last eight overall. They hit right-handed pitching pretty well and are 5-2 O/U in their last seven games against a right-handed starter. 

This is a tale of two different teams, as one lineup is cold and is facing a decent starter while the other lineup is hot and is facing an ice-cold starter. 

Cubs vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Jameson Taillon (1-3, 7.05 ERA): To say that Taillon has had a rough go of things in 2023 would be an understatement. He’s lasted just 37 innings across nine starts and has surrendered at least three earned runs in seven of those appearances. His 5.09 xERA and 4.12 FIP both indicate that he has been a bit unlucky. Part of his fortune is to blame for his career-high 10% barrel rate. 

Jaime Barria (2-2, 1.59 ERA): Barria has mostly operated out of the bullpen as this will mark just his third start despite appearing in 13 games. His 2.70 xERA and 3.11 FIP are both over a full run higher than his actual ERA, although they are still respectable numbers. One of his ingredients for success involves his 25% strikeout rate — a career-high mark.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

Taillon has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his nine outings this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Angels

Weather

Pages related to this topic