The Philadelphia Phillies were the hottest team in baseball just a week ago, but they’ve cooled significantly with four losses in their last seven games.
Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals have been heating up, taking seven of their last nine to move up to second in the National League Central.
I give you an in-depth preview of what should be a well-pitched game in my MLB picks and Cardinals vs. Phillies predictions for Saturday, June 1.
Cardinals vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The St. Louis Cardinals have found some offense over the past two weeks with the eighth-best wRC+ in baseball, which has been the product of a .160 Isolated Power and a pretty decent .258 average.
With that said, I still have many questions about how good this offense is considering the personnel and the fact that St. Louis just lost Lars Nootbaar, who’s been one of their best hitters over the last few weeks, to yet another injury.
Enter Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who will draw a slightly-wounded Cardinals offense due to that injury and one which ranks 27th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. Suarez has been spectacular this season with a 1.75 ERA backed by a 2.44 xERA. He’s limited power with a stellar .302 xSLG and should be able to strip St. Louis of the power that’s driven it of late.
On the flip side, Sonny Gray’s brilliant contact profile and high 32.4% strikeout rate should work wonders here against a Phillies team that has done a ton of damage in the power department and hasn’t struck out all that much. He’s getting a park downgrade, but his ability to roll up ground balls at nearly a 45% clip coupled with his strikeout touch should make the Phillies look far less menacing than normal.
I think there’s cause for concern with both offenses here given the matchup, and even in a hitter’s park we should be treated to a pitcher’s duel.
Cardinals vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Sonny Gray 6+ strikeouts
Bryson Stott 1+ hits
By combining a strikeout total with an opposing hitter prop, we can boost our odds a bit here along with our best bet.
I think Gray can go for six or more punchouts yet again — something he’s done in each of his last eight starts. The Phillies aren’t striking out a ton, sure, but Gray’s pitched to over a 30% whiff rate and is sitting down hitters at a torrid pace this season.
One guy who doesn’t strike out a ton and thrives at converting ground balls into hits is Bryson Stott, and I like him to pick up a hit here. He’s gone 0-for-4 against Gray in his career, but those appearances have carried a .304 xBA with them. He’s struggling at the moment, but that just means this is an excellent time to buy low.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Phillies odds
Cardinals vs Phillies live odds
Cardinals vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Moneyline: St. Louis +127 | Philadelphia -138
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cardinals vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies began at the betting window as -140 favorites before the money started flying in, pushing them steadily out past -160 as of Saturday afternoon.
- The total has remained at 7.5 for almost the entire time, coming down to 7 very briefly.
- DraftKings is reporting that just 13% of the bets and 18% of the handle on the moneyline is on the Cardinals.
- While 37% of the tickets are on the Under, it’s taken on just 31% of the money.
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Cardinals vs Phillies trend
The Cardinals have hit the Under in five straight games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Phillies
Cardinals vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Sonny Gray (6-2, 2.87 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Ranger Suarez (9-0, 1.36 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Phillies latest injuries
Cardinals vs Phillies weather
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