Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Los Angeles Tees Off Against Thompson

James Bisson - Head of Content, Betting
James Bisson • Head of Content, Betting 16+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 29, 2024 , 02:02 PM ET • 4 min read

The Dodgers overwhelmed St. Louis in Thursday's home opener, and we expect Los Angeles' loaded lineup to deliver once more when they take on an unproven left-hander. Read more in our Cardinals vs. Dodgers betting picks.

mlb

Mar 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Will Smith Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers came out blazing in their home opener on Thursday, rocking Miles Mikolas and riding a gem from Tyler Glasnow to a big win. Now, the ball goes to young Bobby Miller as the home team looks to improve to 3-1 after its solid start to the season in South Korea.

Can St. Louis find a way to get to baseball’s new super team, or will this torrid pace continue in the MLB odds? Let's dive right into it with our in-depth MLB picks for Cardinals vs. Dodgers on Friday, March 29.

Cardinals vs Dodgers odds

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Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions

One thing you always have to look for in young pitchers, primarily those who flashed insane strikeout stuff in the minors, is how they find ways to get outs at the major league level when it's not by the punchout.

For Bobby Miller, the journey was fun to watch. The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander entered the league and immediately managed to pitch to roughly a 50% ground ball rate through two months, and after a dip in July, he posted the best ground ball month of his rookie season in August. All the while, his strikeouts rose as the months went on, and Miller managed to remain highly effective as he rolled up ground balls inning after inning.

Miller seems to be the complete package in a starter, and pitching behind one of the best offenses in baseball only raises the Dodgers' odds this evening. 

Meanwhile, St. Louis Cardinals starter Zack Thompson finds himself pitching to that deadly Los Angeles lineup following an injury to Sonny Gray during spring training. Despite some encouraging showings early in his career, Thompson may be in over his head in this one.

Thompson’s spring was a solid one, but his strikeouts did dissipate just a touch from last season, which calls his expected stats from a year ago into question. The Dodgers were the seventh-best offense against left-handers a season ago and should ultimately take care of another weak Cardinals starter tonight.

My best bet: Dodgers first five innings -0.5 (-140 at DraftKings)

Cardinals vs Dodgers same-game parlay

Dodgers moneyline

Zack Thompson Under 4.5 strikeouts

Will Smith 2+ total bases

Along with taking the Dodgers to win outright, we'll be fading Thompson's strikeout prop. When you look at the southpaws' K rate, it’s just a touch above average at 23.4% for his career.

The Dodgers did not strike out a ton last season, and lefties, in particular, finished under 22%. Thompson also began 2023 in the bullpen and was not very stretched out by the end of the season, going more than five innings on just one occasion. 

I’ll also take Will Smith to record a couple of bases here. The star catcher is off to a blistering start with six hits in 14 at-bats this year and I like him to keep that going.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Cardinals vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • The Dodgers opened around -215 and were steadily bet down to -238. The line has since moved back up to -225.
  • At DraftKings, 55% of the bets and 66% of the money are on the Over.
  • The opening number on the total of 9.0 hasn’t budged at all aside from two very brief moves to 8.5.

Trend to know

The Dodgers have covered the run line in 80 of their last 139 games (+23.35 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers

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Cardinals vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Friday, March 29, 2024
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+

Starting pitchers

Zack Thompson (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The lefty is coming off a solid spring, posting a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings, though it did not begin with the expectation of starting. The former first-round pick will audition for a more permanent role as the team waits for Gray to return.

Bobby Miller (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The flamethrower, who is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, hasn’t quite flashed the strikeout numbers he posted in the minor leagues over the last two seasons, though that’s to be expected from a pitcher with just 124 1/3 innings under his belt. Despite that, he’s bordered on an elite arm, sporting a stellar .229 xBA and 3.40 xERA a season ago.

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James Bisson
Head of Content, Betting

James Bisson is the Editor-in-Chief at Covers. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, including a nine-year stint with The Canadian Press and more than five years at theScore. He has covered dozens of marquee events including the 2010 Winter Olympics, the 2006 Stanley Cup final and Wrestlemania 23, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian, Yahoo! Sports, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail.

His book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008 and earned him appearances on CBC Radio and Canada AM. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews, more than 200 industry news articles, and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles.

A graduate of the broadcast journalism program at Ryerson University (now Toronto Metropolitan University), James has been an avid bettor since the early 2000s, and cites bet365 as his favorite sports betting site due to its superior functionality and quick payouts. His biggest professional highlight: Covering Canada's first Olympic gold medal on home soil – and interviewing Bret Hart. Twice.

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