Cardinals vs Braves Picks and Predictions: ATL Batters Birds Bullpen

Atlanta's been thorough at the plate of late, and can offset the advantage it may give up to start on the mound today. With St. Louis' bullpen vulnerable against the Braves' hot bats, see why our MLB betting picks like the Cardinals to get piled upon.

Last Updated: Jul 5, 2022 1:15 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Dansby Swanson Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two NL teams looking to improve their playoff position will meet at Truist Park on Tuesday night as the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves won their fifth game out of seven when they outlasted the Cardinals on a rainy Monday night, 6-3, to stay within 3.5 games of the Mets for first in the NL East. The St. Louis loss — their fourth in their last five tilts — helped knock them to three games behind the Brewers in the NL Central.

Who will come out on top here? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs Braves on Tuesday, July 5.

Cardinals vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Braves were unveiled as consensus favorites of -145, and there’s barely been any movement in that department. However, some books have been forced to adjust their opening total of 9.5, with some operators moving the line to 10 runs, and others raising the vig on the Over significantly.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cardinals vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 7/5/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Cardinals vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Tuesday, July 5, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports

Cardinals vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Andre Pallante (2-3, 2.10 ERA): Pallante has stretched out for the Cardinals with success after starting the season in the bullpen. His last outing was arguably his best of the year, as he held the Marlins to two runs over seven frames. This will be Pallante’s first career effort against the Braves. 

Ian Anderson (6-5, 5.31 ERA): Anderson had one of his worst months as a major leaguer in June, authoring a 6.91 ERA. The Phillies roughed him up for seven runs over just two innings of work when last seen on June 30. He has never faced the Cardinals in his three-year career (237 innings). 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Cardinals vs. Braves injuries

Betting trend to know

The Braves are 12-3 in their last 15 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Braves

Cardinals vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Despite being apparently overmatched in the starting pitching department, the Braves should prevail against the Cardinals on Tuesday night.

Andre Pallante has done well to keep his ERA down at 2.10, but his pedestrian 1.31 WHIP suggests that he is vulnerable on the mound. The Braves strike out more than almost any team in baseball, but Pallante has managed to strikeout just 33 batters through 55 2-3 innings this year.

Dansby Swanson figures to play a huge role in keeping the line moving for Atlanta here. He picked up right where he left off in June — where he hit .330 with seven homers and 19 RBI — by recording multi-hit games in three of his first four July performances. Five of his nine hits through 18 at-bats have been for extra bases — including a home run — and he’s tallied six RBI. 

Once Swanson and company chase Pallante, they should be able to capitalize on a shorthanded Redbirds bullpen that’s missing both Genesis Cabrera and T.J. McFarland due to COVID. 

Even if Ian Anderson pitches to his June ERA of 6.91, the Braves’ fifth-ranked bullpen (3.25 ERA) should be able to pick up the slack. Closer Kenley Jansen is currently out due to an irregular heartbeat, but Will Smith has filled in admirably, picking up the save in each of his last three chances, including Monday night’s triumph. 

The Braves’ pitching staff faces a St. Louis lineup that’s hurting right now, especially in the outfield. Corey Dickerson, Tyler O’Neill, and Harrison Bader are all currently on the shelf due to injury.

The trends favor Atlanta too, as the Braves are 14-3 in their last 17 games after scoring five or more runs in their previous affair. The Cards have lost each of their last five meetings with the defending World Series champs.

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Redbirds batters are down but not out, and they should plate enough runs to keep this game competitive and send it Over the total.

Paul Goldschmidt is putting together an MVP-like campaign, hitting .340 with 19 homers and 65 RBI. He’s second only to the Twins’ Luis Arraez in average (.348) this year and is on pace for career-highs in both taters (39) and runs driven in (135). 

Nolan Arenado had a solid month of June (.290, five longballs, 17 RBI) after slumping through May, and has begun July by tearing the cover off the ball. He’s 9-for-17 (.529) thus far with three round-trippers and six RBI. 

Juan Yepez went deep in last night’s loss, bringing his home run total up to five over his last eight contests. 

Trend bettors should note that the Over is 6-2 in the Braves’ last eight games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 10-4 in the Cardinals’ last 14 road games against right-handed starters. Additionally, the Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in the Peach State.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (-114 at BetRivers)

Best bet

The Braves have averaged 4.88 runs per game at home this year, fifth in baseball, and should bring that figure up a bit on Tuesday night.

Swanson is not the only Atlanta hitter swinging a hot bat at the moment. Austin Riley had recorded four straight multi-hit games prior to last night’s 0-for-4. Four of his nine hits in that stretch went for extra bases, highlighted by a pair of dingers. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. has been handled gingerly by Braves brass since coming back from injury, and while the road has not been entirely smooth, everyone involved has to be pleased with his .287 average, seven homers, and 19 RBI through 180 at-bats from the leadoff spot. He’s also stolen 16 bases on the campaign. Acuna is off to a fast start in July, authoring a .955 OPS through 14 at-bats. 

Add all this up against a vulnerable St. Louis bullpen, and it’s worth backing the Braves team total. 

Pick: Braves team total Over 4.5 (-140 at BetMGM)

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