Canada vs USA World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: American Bats Unload Frustrations

There are two things for certain in the 2023 edition of the World Baseball Classic. Japan is the only great team, and everything else is a crap shoot. 

The unpredictable results have continued in Pool C play. USA entered the tournament as the heavy favorite to win the pool but after a humbling loss against Mexico, things are a little more uncertain heading into tonight’s matchup against Canada.

The Canadians opened their tournament with a mercy-rule victory over Great Britain but the Canucks had their own issues with run prevention in that game.

Are fireworks on the horizon for this North American throw down? I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and bring you my best bet for Canada vs. USA.

Canada vs USA odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 13, 2023. 

Canada vs USA picks and predictions

This World Baseball Classic has been nothing if not unpredictable. And that has continued in Pool C play, particularly when you look at the play of Team USA.

The Americans opened their tournament with an uninspiring 6-2 victory against a clearly overmatch Great Britain team, but then their biggest weakness showed against Mexico. 

While they arguably have the most stacked lineup in the WBC, most of the country’s top starting pitchers opted out of this tournament and it showed yesterday. Starter Nick Martinez got tagged for three runs on five hits and that was just the precursor in an eventual 11-5 loss.

Meanwhile, Canada, led by Freddie Freeman, opened its WBC with an interesting game, also against Great Britain. It was a back-and-forth slugfest through four innings where Canada held a 10-8 lead. Through four innings.

But Canada was able to take advantage of Great Britain’s lack of pitching depth and tied a World Baseball Classic record with 18 runs in an 18-8 mercy rule win that ended after seven innings. (The record was short-lived as Korea put up 22 runs against China on Monday morning).

But let’s focus on the part where the Canucks gave up eight runs. In four innings. It looked like Canada manager Ernie Whitt was having trouble figuring out how to get outs and ended up having to use his five relievers (in a seven-inning game), including arguably his best in Matt Brash.

Tonight, Whitt will hand the ball to a 19-year-old minor leaguer against one of the best lineups ever assembled in baseball.

That 19-year-old is Mitch Bratt, who is a former fifth-round pick in the Texas Rangers farm system. The lefty performed well in his first full season in A-ball, pitching to a 3.12 ERA and striking out an impressive 11 batters per nine innings. 

Unfortunately, the lineups Bratt faced in Single-A are a mile away from what he’ll see today. A team USA lineup that features Mike Tout, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado. And it goes on like that.

The Americans have scored 11 runs through the first two games but it still feels like we are waiting for their bats to break out. Now they face a Canada team that just gave up eight runs to Great Britain and burned some of their best relievers in the process.

Let’s take a swing with the USA bats and bet on that breakout. I’m taking Team USA to go Over the alternate team total at solid plus money.

My best bet: Team USA alternate team total Over 9.5 (+275 at bet365)

Canada vs USA moneyline analysis

Team USA is a massive -500 favorite in this all-North American matchup. And why wouldn’t they be? While pitching maybe this team’s biggest weakness, they arguably hand the ball to their best starter in Lance Lynn.

An injury meant Lynn got off to a slow start with the White Sox last season. But following the All-Star break when he was all warmed up, he pitched to a 2.52 ERA and limited opponents to a .225 batting average. 

Today, he takes on a Canada lineup that features two impact Big League bats in Freddie Freeman and Tyler O’Neill, but the rest of the team is made up of prospects and veteran minor leaguers. 

I think the step up in competition for Canada will be apparent here. The Americans have edges all over the field — even with the pitching.

Unfortunately, at -500 there is little value on the USA in this matchup. Even the runline at -3.5 makes me feel a little uneasy considering the crazy results up to this point in the tournament. 

Canada vs USA Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup is on the board at a hefty 11.5 and since I’m betting on the Americans to have a big day at the dish, I would lean toward the Over on the full-game total as well.

USA’s deep lineup of Major Leaguers shouldn’t have trouble putting up runs against a Canadian pitching staff full of minor leaguers you won’t recognize. 

Meanwhile, Canada’s lineup was impressive in putting up 18 runs in its first game. Obviously half of 18 runs is probably not on the table for tonight’s matchup with the Americans, but there is enough talent there to put up enough runs in this one. Particularly once they get past Lynn and into the bullpen.

Canada vs USA game info

Canada vs USA starting pitchers

Mitch Bratt: The Rangers prospect has been a strikeout artist during his brief professional career. The left-hander will need to rack up the strikeouts if he wants to give Canada a shot.

Lance Lynn: Lynn is a right-hander and MLB veteran of 11 seasons. Lynn uses an excellent fastball and doesn't walk many batters.

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