The Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins begin a short two-game series in Minneapolis on Tuesday night. The Twins have a two-game lead atop the AL Central, while the Brewers are one game behind the Pirates in the NL Central.
MLB betting lines opened with the Twins as slim -115 home favorites for this interleague matchup, with the Over/Under at 7.5. Here are my best free Brewers vs. Twins MLB picks and predictions for June 13.
Brewers vs Twins odds
Brewers vs Twins predictions
Both of these teams have struggled at the dish, with the Brewers 27th in the majors in batting average (.229) and 25th in scoring (4.05 runs per game), while the Twins are 24th in batting (.230).
Although the Twins have been subpar at the plate, they rank a respectable 10th in the majors in isolated power. Unfortunately, their two best power hitters in Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo are currently on the IL alongside another starter with pop in Jorge Polanco.
Minnesota also ranks dead-last in the majors in strikeout rate, which is bad news against Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who can mow batters down. The 2021 Cy Young winner was rocked in his first two starts of the year but has turned things around, pitching to a 2.50 ERA with an OBA of .186 in 11 starts since then.
The Twins are responding with veteran right-hander Pablo Lopez. Lopez has been a bit inconsistent this year but has a solid 1.14 WHIP with an expected ERA of 3.34, which suggests that he's been a bit unlucky on the hill.
I'm hesitant to bet the Under 7.5 on the full game total since the Brewers' bullpen has struggled lately (5.05 ERA with a 4.79 FIP since the start of May), but I like the Under 4 on the first five innings line tonight.
My best bet: First 5 innings Under 4 (-115 at bet365)
Brewers vs Twins same-game parlay
First 5 innings alt under 4.5
Burnes Over 6.5 strikeouts
Lopez Over 6.5 strikeouts
While all of these plays are juiced at more than -150 on their own, they work extremely well in tandem with one another, and FanDuel has lower strikeout props for these pitchers than many books today.
Although FanDuel doesn't have the Under 4 on the first five innings, the Under 4.5 is a similar alternative that will cash if these teams combine for four runs. And if four or fewer runs are scored in the first five frames it's a good indication that both of these starters will be on.
Burnes' strikeout rate has plummeted to just 23.7% this season after sitting above 30% in each of the past three years (and topping out at 36.7% in 2020). However, not much has really changed in terms of his arsenal, as he still relies on a cutter that hits over 94 mph on the gun while also mixing in a plus curveball and changeup.
Expect Burnes' strikeout rate to trend upwards, and he should be able to rack up plenty of punchouts against a Twins lineup that ranks dead last in the majors in strikeouts.
The Brewers have also been whiffing way too much and are 27th in the strikeout rate, which should mean lots of Ks for Lopez who who is eighth in the majors with 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
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Brewers vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The line opened with the Twins at -115 and has ticked up to -120 as of 10:00 a.m. Don't expect to see that go much higher since both of these squads have similar records, and the Brewers have the better starter on the mound in Burnes.
The Brewers have lost four games in a row and are coming off an embarrassing three-game sweep at home against the woeful A's. However, they were favorites in each of the Burnes' previous three starts against the Orioles, Reds, and Giants.
The Twins are coming off a 7-6 loss to the Jays on Sunday, and are 2-6 in their last eight games.
The total opened at 7.5 and the vig on the Under has shifted from -105 to +100 at bet365. That should be a sign that the O/U will eventually hit 8 which it already has at a few books.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee's last seven games on the road while going 7-2 in Minnesota's previous nine contests overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Twins
Brewers vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports North |
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (5-4, 3.36 ERA): Burnes' strikeout rate might be lower than usual this season, but the two-time All-Star still has impressive analytics. The righty is in the Top 10th percentile in average exit velocity, the Top 20th percentile in hard hit rate, and the Top 30th percentile in barrel rate. He's fresh off pitching a gem against the Orioles last Wednesday when he allowed two hits and fanned nine batters across eight innings of shutout ball.
Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.25 ERA): Lopez made 63 starts for the Marlins between 2020 and 2022, posting a 3.52 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP during that span. The 27-year-old has been up and down in his first season with the Twins. but looked very impressive in his last start. He scattered five hits and limited the normally high-scoring Rays to just a single run through seven innings of work last Wednesday.
