The Milwaukee Brewers (44-30) look to keep the winning ways alive as they begin a four-game series with the San Diego Padres (38-40) on Thursday night at Petco Park.
I’m targeting Milwaukee starter Bryse Wilson with my Brewers vs. Padres prediction, as the advanced metrics underlie his surface-level effectiveness, and his splits against left-handed batters have been concerning.
Thus, I turn my attention to the opposition’s player props market as my favorite betting angle in my MLB picks for Thursday, June 20.
Brewers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 total bases (+132 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
San Diego Padres mainstay Jake Cronenworth doesn’t get many days off. When he does get a rare day of reprieve, he tends to come back well-rested and with a vengeance. The 30-year-old has been granted just two days of rest since April 27 and has homered both times in his return outing.
Croneworth was allowed a day off on Wednesday but will return today and forecasts for a successful day at the dish.
The utility man’s trajectory was a bit unclear after declining in production for three straight seasons following his breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He’s back on track in 2024, posting his best wRC+ (117), xwOBA (.343), BA (.251), and ISO (.179) in three years.
Cronenworth’s underlying metrics are encouraging. He avoids swinging and missing (76th percentile chase%, 86th percentile whiff%) while barreling the ball a fair amount (68th percentile barrel%). By all accounts, he seems on pace for an effective season, ranking in the 73rd percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.
The Milwaukee Brewers are sending big Bryse Wilson to the mound Thursday. His surface-level ERA is impressive (3.84) but is not supported by any of his advanced numbers.
Wilson’s xERA (4.64), FIP (4.74), and xFIP (4.68) paint a clearer picture of his calibre, and it’s quite fortunate he hasn’t been battered around more. His BABIP (.257 this year, 2.85 career) and left on-base % (78.1% this year, 71.7% career) both appear unsustainable and make him a prime candidate for regression.
The 26-year-old doesn’t make batters miss (seventh percentile chase%, 20th percentile whiff%) and is prone to allowing hard contact (13th percentile hard-hit%). That’s hardly a recipe for success.
Most critical to this handicap, Wilson has notable left-right splits. He’s been effective against righties (.235 wOBA, .179 BA) but has been crushed by lefties (.404 wOBA, .301 BA). His 6.06 FIP and 1.84 WHIP against left-handed bats is a clear indication that he’s ineffective against batters from that side of the plate, so I’ll gladly ride the fade train and take the plus money on Cronenworth accumulating 2+ total bases.
Brewers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 total bases
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total bases
Padres team total Over 3.5
Adam Mazur Over 2.5 walks allowed
If I fancy Cronenworth’s odds of having a productive day, then I have to like Padres rookie Jackson Merrill for many of the same reasons. He’s been on fire lately, homering in five of his last seven games and raising his OPS from .647 on June 7 to .734 at present. The youngster has mashed right-handed pitching with a 127 wRC+ and .342 wOBA, so there’s a lot to like about his matchup against a paper tiger in Wilson.
In fact, there’s a lot to like about the Padres’ offensive chances in general, considering they have strong numbers against right-handed pitching this year. As a squad, they rank third in wRC+ (119) and fourth in wOBA (.330) while posting the second-lowest K% (18.6%).
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding starting pitcher Adam Mazur, a 23-year-old rookie out of Iowa who has walked an unbelievable 13 batters across his first 12 2-3 IP at the Big-League level. Until Mazur shows signs of improving his control, it’s hard to be bullish on him in a matchup against a Milwaukee lineup with the fourth-highest BB% (10.4%) against righties in June.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Padres odds
Brewers vs Padres live odds
Brewers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+144) | San Diego +1.5 (-161)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -115 | San Diego +106
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-101) | Under 8.5 (-111)
Brewers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee has gotten the best of this matchup, going 7-3 across the last 10 meetings.
- San Diego was riding the struggle bus with five straight losses until it was able to pull off a 5-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Padres return home having gone just 1-5 on their six-game road trip.
- Both teams are trending to the Under. Milwaukee has hit the Under in 17 of its last 29 away games, while San Diego has hit the Under in 15 of its last 24 games overall.
Brewers vs Padres trend
Cronenworth has two career plate appearances against Wilson and has collected a hit both times. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres
Brewers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Bryse Wilson (4-3, 3.84 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Adam Mazur (0-2, 7.82 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
Brewers vs Padres weather
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