The Milwaukee Brewers still have baseball's best record and are -121 moneyling favorites with Kyle Harrison on the mound against the San Diego Padres tonight.
Harrison's edge over Walker Buehler has my Brewers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks favoring the visitors on Tuesday, Aug. 11.
Who will win Brewers vs Padres today: Brewers moneyline (-121)
The Milwaukee Brewers don't always turn newly acquired pitchers into aces, but they have done exactly that with left-hander Kyle Harrison.
Harrison returned from the injured list after missing nearly a month, and immediately struck out 10 batters while allowing just one hit over five innings. He left that game early with cramps, and not a recurrence of an elbow issue that landed him on the injured list in the first place.
Perhaps it's his durability that has this line at -121, because I can't otherwise make sense of it. The Brewers have the best record in baseball and will step in against San Diego Padres right-hander Walker Buehler, who is a far cry from the borderline ace in 2019 and 2021 with the Dodgers.
Buehler owns a 5.07 ERA and a 4.39 expected ERA. He doesn't miss bats, owning a 26.3% chase rate (ninth percentile) and 20.8% whiff rate (15th percentile). And his 9.5% walk rate won't do him any favors against a Brewers offense that walks at the second-highest clip in MLB this season.
Brice Turang and Jake Bauers have anchored the offense and have terrorized right-handed pitching this season, with each boasting a wRC+ of 145 or better in the split.
I'd play the moneyline up to -150 and would strongly consider Milwaukee -1.5 at +120 or better.
COVERS INTEL: Harrison has seen sharp gains across the board, but compare his whiff, chase, strikeout, and walk rates from 2024 (when he had 124 1/3 MLB innings under his belt) to where he sits today (78th percentile or better in each). He's a completely different pitcher.
Brewers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-116)
The Brewers will get to Buehler, but once the game gives way to the bullpens, scoring will be hard to come by.
By FanGraphs WAR, this series features the best and third-best relief units in MLB this season. And even if Mason Miller is the star attraction, who presumably won't see the field if the Padres are losing, the rest of San Diego's bullpen is also impressive.
Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Yuki Matsui all have ERAs below 3.50.
Plus, Petco Park is generally pitcher-friendly and will play as such tonight, with winds blowing across the field and slightly in from left. BallparkPal projects it as a slight decrease in scoring and power probability as a result.
I'd play Under 7.5 to -125 but would like a slightly larger cushion at 8.5 if I can find it.
Brewers vs Padres home run prediction: Brice Turang (+750)
With the wind blowing from left field toward right, I want to target a left-handed bat who can hook one around the foul pole.
The safer pick is Bauers, but Turang offers better value. He's not a pull hitter, so we're banking on a little assistance from the wind.
He's hit 15 of his 16 home runs off of right-handers, and while his overall numbers are worse on the road, he's hit more long balls away from American Family Field.
- ML/RL bets: 7-4, +3.81 units
- Over/Under bets: 6-5, +0.06 units
Brewers vs Padres weather
Warm temperatures between 76 and 82 degrees with 5-9 mph winds moving from left to right. These conditions slightly favor pitchers but aren't overwhelmingly against offense relative to other ballparks on the slate.
Brewers vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Brewers -117 | Padres +113
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+144) | Padres +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+108) | Under 7.5 (-113)
Brewers vs Padres trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 away games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.
How to watch Brewers vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, Calif. |
| Date | Tuesday, August 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, Padres.TV |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (9-2, 2.84 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (6-5, 5.07 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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