The New York Yankees are -130 favorites to rebound after dropping their series finale on Sunday.
My Mariners vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks suggest they are overpriced, and I see plenty of value in backing the road underdogs in this series opener on Tuesday, Aug. 11.
Who will win Mariners vs Yankees today: Mariners moneyline (+110)
Bryan Woo has posted a 3.61 xFIP over the past month while limiting hard contact and posting a strong fly ball rate of 32.8%.
That profile sets him up well to slow down a New York Yankees attack generating power and not much else.
They rank dead-last with a painful .198 average against righties over the last 30 days. It’s feast or famine, and Woo’s abilities should lead to more of the latter.
The Seattle Mariners’ 11th-place ranking in wOBA vs. lefties over the same period will allow them to meaningfully test Ryan Weathers.
Play to -110.
COVERS INTEL: Woo's 86th-percentile ranking in Pitcher Run Value bodes well for his chances of success against a struggling Yankees offense.
Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-105)
Weathers sits in the 31st percentile in barrel rate and the 23rd in hard-hit rate, and can be prone to giving up power — especially in favorable hitting conditions.
He owns a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 3.21 HR/9 over five starts in games where conditions provided at least a 10% boost to homers, and today’s game sits at 11%.
Woo’s home run rate is much higher on the road, where he has conceded 1.29 HR/9. The Yankees consistently hit for power and will test Woo in these conditions.
I project 8.3 runs, and would bet to -112.
Mariners vs Yankees home run prediction: Cal Raleigh (+335)
It's not been a good season for Cal Raleigh, but he’s on the right track.
Raleigh is hitting for a lot of power right now, posting an average exit velocity of 96.2 over the past 10 games while barreling up 36.2% of the time and hitting eight balls at least 300 feet.
Nobody on the Mariners has bested Raleigh in any of those categories — Taylor Ward is the only player remotely close — and favorable conditions could help convert a flyout into a homer.
Bet to +310.
- ML/RL bets: 75-67, -6.70 units
- Over/Under bets: 78-58-6, +10.79 units
Mariners vs Yankees weather
The bats will see a boost with temperatures expected to enter the 80s and winds blowing out.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Mariners +110 | Yankees -130
- Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Yankees -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Mariners vs Yankees trend
Seattle has hit the Over in 16 of its last 25 away games (+8.35 units, 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryan Woo (8-8, 4.31 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (5-7, 3.79 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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