It's a Tuesday slate filled with information that isn't priced into the pitcher strikeout market and other MLB player props.
Mitch Bratt is pushing for a rotation spot and has ladder potential; Nick Lodolo has missed a month and is learning a new grip on his curveball due to a blister, while Drew Anderson could have a longer leash thanks to pitching on full rest.
These are my favorite pitcher strikeout props and MLB picks for Aug. 11.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Mitch Bratt |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +128 |
 Nick Lodolo |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | -105 |
 Drew Anderson |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | +115 |
Strikeout prop: Mitch Bratt Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128)
Canadian rookie Mitch Bratt is coming off a seven-inning shutout, one-hit performance where he punched out nine Padres over 92 pitches. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander has the leash, is motivated while fighting for a rotation spot, and projects as one of the best K Overs today in a cupcake matchup against the Colorado Rockies.
Colorado owns a 25% K rate against southpaws, which is one of the worst marks in baseball. I could see this price falling off a cliff, as the projection is 5.08 Ks over 85 pitches, and that might be conservative. There is also ladder potential here, with 7+ Ks paying +560 at FanDuel, +550 at bet365, and +582 at DraftKings.
Bratt can be a K-per-inning pitcher in the big leagues but needs to work on his command. Luckily for him, he's on his home mound and faces one of the lowest walk-rate offenses in baseball. Bratt owns a 26% CSW rate over his last three games, which is an above-average rate.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Strikeout prop: Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 strikeouts (-105)
Nick Lodolo has a lot of paths to his Unders today. He's coming off the IL after hitting the shelf before the All-Star break with a blister issue. The Cincinnati Reds southpaw only threw 65 pitches in his last rehab start, so his leash isn't going to be long against the Chicago White Sox.
The real issue here is that blister. The lefty is apparently using a modified grip on his curveball, which is worth the fade on a short leash. Lodolo's curveball is his putaway pitch, and if that isn't there with the new grip, that's only going to help the Under.
I'm playing this to -120.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Reds.TV
Strikeout prop: Drew Anderson Over 3.5 strikeouts (+115)
Drew Anderson's last start saw the Detroit Tigers' hurler finish with 42 pitches, recording just 11 outs. He failed to strike out a batter in that game but entered it with 78 Ks over 63 2/3 innings out of the pen, so there is still plenty of swing-and-miss potential.
The real edge is that Anderson was pitching on three days' rest rather than a full five. Now that Anderson is back on five days of rest, his leash could be longer than expected when he faces the Cleveland Guardians.
Usually, when a pitcher is building up, a safe jump in pitches is around 15, but there could be more room today.
This Over is good at -105 or better. The zero-K outing last time and short rest are giving us value on this plus-money Over.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Guardians.TV
- Prop picks: 7-10, -3.23 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
