Brewers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee to Ashby, San Diego to Dust

Swingman Aaron Ashby takes the hill in San Diego for the Brewers tonight and even though his innings have been limited, we think his strikeouts prop is listed a little too low. Punch outs are his calling card and he should cruise over the total.

Last Updated: May 25, 2022 9:00 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Aaron Ashby Milwaukee Brewers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers earned a win over the San Diego Padres at Petco Park last night, which means these two teams have split victories heading into the final game of this series on Wednesday. 

Which one of these clubs will end up taking this three-game set? Keep reading our MLB picks and predictions for our favorite plays between the Brewers and Padres.

Brewers vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened as -125 favorites but the line is moving a bit in the other direction by the time of this writing. The Brewers are now as low as +115 despite the Padres having a better starter — on paper — on the mound. 

The total, which opened at 7.5, is mostly staying put, but there is one book that has it at 8. However, that seems to be something of a pricing mistake, but it’s one you can take advantage of if you can get it fast enough. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 5/25/2022 at 2:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Brewers vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Wednesday, May 25, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports San Diego

Brewers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Aaron Ashby (0-3, 3.49 ERA): Ashby is a guy the Brewers are really excited about, as he has nasty stuff and has the looks of the next great member of Milwaukee's rotation. This has been an up-and-down season for the 24-year-old, but he’s capable of giving the Brewers five really good innings when he’s on his game. Just don’t expect him to pitch much longer than that, as he has topped out at 85 pitches this year and also pitched only one inning last time out. 

Yu Darvish (4-1, 3.91 ERA): Darvish has had two really rough outings that have skewed his numbers this year, but he has mostly been dominant for San Diego otherwise. The righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his eight starts, and he’s coming off of a seven-inning shutout against the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Freddy Peralta P (Out), Josh Hader P (Out), Jake Cousins P (Out), Willy Adames SS (Out), J.C. Mejia P (Out), Jandel Gustave P (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Padres: Mike Clevinger P (Out), Matt Beaty OF (Out), Pierce Johnson P (Out), Austin Adams P (Out), Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Michel Baez P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 36-16 in their last 52 road games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres

Brewers vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Not only are the Brewers 36-16 in their last 52 road games against right-handed starters, but Milwaukee is also 65-32 in its last 97 games against righties overall. The Padres have found most of their recent success beating up on lesser opponents and are just 8-18 in their last 26 games against teams with winning percentages of 60% or higher. 

This season, Milwaukee is fourth in the league in slugging percentage, third in isolated power, and fifth in weighted runs created against right-handed pitching. A lot of that is because the team has several lefty hitters who see righties well.

First baseman Rowdy Tellez is in the midst of what appears to be a breakout season at the dish, and right-handers have been his primary victims. He leads the team with an .877 OPS and 140 wRC+ vs. righties and has grooved eight of his nine homers against right-handed hurlers.

Ashby, who has operated largely as a swingman for the Brewers, is capable of a solid performance when stretched out even if he can't be counted on to go extra deep into his starts. Outside two disastrous outings, Ashby has only allowed two earned runs in 22 innings.

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (+115 at Betway)

Over/Under analysis

Most sportsbooks have this total down at 7.5, but it was still available at 8 at the time of this writing.

Either way, the Under is the play in this game. The Under is now 6-2 in Milwaukee's last eight games, and it’s also 5-1 in the team's last six against clubs with winning records. On top of that, the Under is 13-5 in San Diego's last 18 home games and 9-4 in the last 13 with the Padres installed as home favorites. 

This matchup also features a pretty good battle on the mound, so these pitchers should be able to keep the score low. Ashby might not be a household name, but he is capable of pitching a few really good innings, while Darvish is always a threat to turn in a quality start — and really do more than that if he's really on his game.

This one should ultimately come down to the bullpens, but they should be able to hold it together for Under bettors. 

Prediction: Under 8 (-106 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Ashby came in and shut the door on the Washington Nationals in Friday’s 7-0 win for the Brewers, and he struck out one batter in that one inning of work — and needed only seven pitches to get the job done. Now, Milwaukee is turning to the lefty as a starter, and Ashby has racked up strikeouts when given the opportunity to toss a decent number of innings. 

This season, Ashby has struck out four or more batters in five of his nine outings despite only pitching three or more innings five times. This translates to him striking out 27.6% of batters faced for a sterling 10.80 K/9.

Look for Ashby to pitch something like four or five innings today, and don’t be surprised if he strikes out quite a few batters. The strikeout was his calling card in Triple-A last season when he fanned 14.21 batters per nine innings.

Ashby has nasty stuff and the Padres haven’t really seen him, which means he could cruise through the first few innings while they adjust to him. 

Pick: Aaron Ashby Over 3.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

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