Orioles vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Baltimore Picks up Underdog Win

It's hard to believe, but this series is all tied up heading into the final matchup. With New York limping into today, Baltimore has a real shot at an upset victory. Find out more in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Yankees.

Last Updated: May 25, 2022 11:18 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tyler Wells Baltimore Orioles MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees snapped a three-game losing skid last night thanks to an extra-inning RBI single from catcher Jose Trevino in the Bombers’ 7-6, 11-inning victory over the Baltimore Orioles. 

Now, the only 30-win team in the league will look to start a new streak with spot starter J.P. Sears taking the ball as a -170 home favorite vs. Tyler Wells and the Orioles.

Can the visitors improve on their 15-41 straight up record vs. New York or is the league’s best bullpen going to dominate tonight with a possible bigger workload? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Orioles and Yankees.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees have fallen on the moneyline from -210 to as low as -165 as the injury to Giancarlo Stanton is noticeable. New York closed as -225 favorites yesterday and -280 favorites on Monday. The Yankees will be using a spot starter today so the bullpen could be heavily involved.

The total currently sits at 7.5 which is the same total it's closed at in the previous two games of the series. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Orioles vs Yankees predictions

Picks made on 5/25/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Orioles vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY
Date: Wednesday, May 25, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MASN 2, YES

Orioles vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tyler Wells (1-3, 4.41 ERA): The towering second-year right-hander has put together a decent season with a 1.19 WHIP over eight starts. He doesn’t overpower batters, with just 23 strikeouts in 33 2-3 innings this season, but he does have an elite spin on his fastball and great command. He struggles to get deep and hasn’t thrown more than 79 pitches this year and will likely yield to the Baltimore bullpen that threw four innings last night. Wells has allowed five long balls in 33-plus innings thus far. He’s seen the Yankees twice this year and has gone nine innings, allowing six hits and two runs in a pair of 5-2 losses.

J.P. Sears (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Sears will get a spot start today due to the Yankees doubleheader over the past weekend. The lefty has made two scoreless relief appearances this season with the Yanks but has started four games in Triple-A with 30 punchouts in just 21 1-3 innings. He likely won’t go deep today meaning this bullpen will get some work, and although this will be the team’s fifth game in four days, the bullpen has thrown just 10 innings over that stretch with five of those coming last night. Sears is a sinker/slider/changeup pitcher who tops out at 95-96 mph.

 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Orioles: Travis Lakins Jr. RP (Out). 
Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton OF (Questionable), Josh Donaldson IF (Out), Kyle Higashioka C (Out), Joey Gallo OF (Out), Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), 

 

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Yankees’ last five during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees

Orioles vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Orioles almost took the first two games of the series last night as the home side needed a two-run, 11th inning to grab the victory and split the three-game series heading into today’s finale. Baltimore got to the New York bullpen last night and has now put up 12 runs over two games vs. one of the league's best pens.

The Orioles are healthy, have won four of their last six, have an elite bullpen, and might be worth a serious look as +175.

There is a lot of talk about the Yankees’ bullpen, but Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green are out and the Orioles have a very underrated relief corps. On the season, the Baltimore bullpen has a better ERA than New York and has been leaned on heavily with the third-most innings pitched on the year.

This could hurt them later in the season, but right now, this is a legit pen that could slow down a Yanks offense that is dealing with injuries and has lost four of their last six games. 

Josh Donaldson and Joey Gallo are on the shelf as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka, and although Jose Travino was outstanding in last night’s victory, the Yanks will likely be without Giancarlo Stanton who exited last night with a calf injury. The infirmary is getting crowded and missing four opening-day starters is a tough blow to an offense that has relied heavily on Aaron Judge to stack runs. 

Judge went 0-for-5 last night, which snapped a five-game hitting streak and now he’ll face Baltimore’s Tyler Wells, who he has three singles off of over eight total at-bats since 2021. 

The Orioles might have the pitching advantage tonight and that includes the starters. Wells has seen the Yankees twice this year and has held this offense to six hits, two runs, and two walks over nine innings.  He doesn’t get deep and doesn’t throw hard for a six-foot-eight pitcher, but he has been elite in walk percentage and fastball spin rate. He also minimizes hard contact and has a high chase rate.

The Baltimore offense sits in the bottom third of the league in most statistics, but has come to life of late and has scored at least six runs in five of its last six games. It showed it can get to this shorthanded Yankee bullpen and now gets to face spot starter, J.P. Sears, who likely won't see more than three innings as this will be his first MLB start after making two previous relief appearances where he didn't record more than three outs. 

Tyler Wells has pitched well in two games against New York this season, but Baltimore failed to win either game. We’re hoping that changes today as the Yankees are dealing with injuries to a majority of their lineup and the bullpen is also wounded. The O's might have the advantage in starting and relief pitching tonight and the offense has been consistently good over the last week. The market is also moving in our favor.

PredictionOrioles moneyline (+175 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

The Over has hit in both games of this series but we’re bearish on that happening for a third straight time.

For starters, this series features two of the Top-5 bullpens in ERA, and although the Yankees are missing some key pieces, this is still a deep unit that hasn’t been overworked lately as their starters have been going deep. Baltimore can trot out Keegan Akin, Dillon Tate, and Jorge Lopez who all have a sub-2.00 ERA on the season and have pitched the most innings out of that Orioles' bullpen.

Secondly, the New York lineup has been Frankensteined. If Judge doesn’t put this offense on its shoulders, this could be an easy lineup to navigate for Wells and the bullpen.

Baltimore’s offense can take credit for the team having one of the best Under records in baseball, with a 17-26-1 O/U mark. The Orioles score the second-fewest runs per game on the road at 3.14 and lead baseball in runners left in scoring position. 

Looking at the playing conditions, no rain is expected but the temperature and humidity are low which aid the pitching slightly. There is a slight wind blowing from right to left field and catcher Jose Travino is ranked as one of the best framing catchers in baseball. 

Tonight’s total is sitting at 7.5 which is the same total the previous two games of the series had closed at. The Yankees are weaker in the lineup tonight and both bullpens could see some extra work which could also favor the Under with how good both have been. 

PredictionUnder 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Combined, both clubs are 36-49-2 to the Under and we like that to continue tonight. 

Chapman is out which may be a good thing for the Yankees’ bullpen as he was getting tagged before hitting the infirmary. Both clubs have a relief corps that sits in the Top 5 in ERA and Baltimore can go all-in today on the pen as it is off tomorrow.

The likely loss of Stanton also hurts the middle of the New York lineup which is missing some pop. It’ll have to face Tyler Wells who has also held this team in check two times already this season — with the Under hitting in both of those games.

J.P. Sears won’t go deep, but he should be able to navigate this weak Baltimore lineup before handing things over. He's been electric in Triple-A with a 0.83 ERA and a 30/2 K/BB ratio over 21 2-3 innings. The Yankees' bullpen did see five innings last night, but had pitched just five innings in the previous three games and should have a full leash today.

Give us a low-scoring series finale in a getaway game for both clubs.

PickUnder 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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