The Washington Nationals host the Milwaukee Brewers in the opening matchup of this three-game series at Nationals Park. MLB odds list Milwaukee as a -154 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Brewers vs. Nationals prediction targets the total in this National League matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, August 1.
Brewers vs Nationals prediction
My Brewers vs Nationals best bet: Over 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Neither starting pitcher is worth backing in this matchup. Starting with Milwaukee Brewers SP Jose Quintana, his underlying metrics suggest steep regression is looming in the second half of the campaign.
He currently ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), walk rate, and barrel rate. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals hand the ball to left-hander Mitchell Parker.
Through 21 starts this season, Parker is 7-10 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. His analytics are somehow even worse.
Entering this matchup, the southpaw ranks in the seventh percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Brewers, a team Parker has struggled mightily against, posting a 9.53 ERA and 1.94 WHIP through three career meetings.
This current Milwaukee roster boasts a .342 batting average, .658 slugging percentage, and .464 weighted on-base average (wOBA) through 45 combined plate appearances against Parker. Expect them to do most of the heavy lifting in a high-scoring series opener.
Brewers vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Brewers moneyline
Andrew Vaughn to hit a home run
The Brewers have hit the ball well this season, ranking in the Top 10 in runs per game, batting average, and on-base percentage, far outranking Washington in each.
If the Brewers are to win a high-scoring affair, then some of their hitters need to produce runs. Andrew Vaughn is as good a candidate as any, given his recent form and track record against Parker.
Vaughn boasts an .800 SLG through six plate appearances against Parker and has homered in three of the past five games.
Brewers vs Nationals odds
Brewers vs Nationals live odds
Brewers vs Nationals opening odds
- Moneyline: Brewers -154 | Nationals +130
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Brewers vs Nationals trend
There have been nine or more total runs scored in seven of the past eight meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Nationals.
How to watch Brewers vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Friday, 8-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jose Quintana (7-4, 3.50 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Mitchell Parker (7-10, 4.91 ERA) |
Brewers vs Nationals latest injuries
Brewers vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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