Two of the top teams in the majors face off in the Sunshine State today with the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Atlanta Braves. This is the second contest of a three-game set at Tropicana Field with Atlanta taking the opener last night in a 2-1 pitcher's duel.
The Braves are sending ace Spencer Strider to the mound for today's showdown and MLB betting lines opened with them installed as -145 road favorites. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Braves at Rays on July 8.
Braves vs Rays odds
Braves vs Rays predictions
Spencer Strider was the runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year last season (behind teammate Michael Harris II) and has quickly emerged as one of the best pitchers in the majors. He's 10-2 with an expected ERA of 3.17 in 17 starts this season and his MLB-leading 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings is 2.2 strikeouts higher than second-place Kevin Gausman. Strider had back-to-back poor outings in June but has allowed just four runs while fanning 28 batters in 19 2/3 innings since.
The Rays are giving the pill to struggling rookie Taj Bradley. The 22-year-old was sent down to the minors in April and despite getting rocked at Triple-A Durham (surrendering 21 runs in 16 innings), he was recalled after injuries decimated Tampa Bay's rotation. In nine starts since slotting back into the rotation, Bradley has a 5.93 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an OBA of .290.
Bradley ranks in the Bottom 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and exit velocity, which is bad news against an Atlanta lineup that leads the majors in both categories. The Braves also lead the majors in wOBA (.360) with that number surging to an incredible .398 since the start of June.
The Rays are third in the majors in wOBA (.341) but their bats have gone cold since the start of June with that number plummeting to .312.
The Braves have gone a sizzling 19-2 in their last 21 games and with their best hurler on the mound against a struggling rookie, there's little reason to consider the underdogs at this number. With the disparity in starting pitchers for this matchup, I'm backing the Braves to have the lead after five innings.
My best bet: Braves first five innings -0.5 (-120 at bet365)
Braves vs Rays same-game parlay
Braves first five innings -0.5 (-120)
Taj Bradley Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
+650 at bet365
While Bradley has been getting hit hard, he has electric stuff and his strikeout rate ranks in the Top 15th percentile. Despite striking out fewer than 5.5 batters in his last two outings, he has still eclipsed that number in eight of 12 starts on the year. Fading the Rays in the first five innings and backing their starter to go Over his strikeouts prop provides a nice multiplier for a parlay.
Ronald Acuna Jr. might be the overwhelming favorite in NL MVP odds but teammate Matt Olson isn't far behind him on the total bases leaderboard. Olson is tied for third in the majors with 192 total bases and is slashing .254/.360/.573 this season.
Olson has been red-hot lately, slugging .688 over the last month, and the left-handed power-hitter will hold the platoon advantage against Bradley.
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Braves vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Braves installed as -145 favorites and that hasn't seen any movement as of 10 a.m. ET. However, with both teams trending in opposite directions and Strider on the hill, money could come in on red-hot Atlanta.
The Braves edged the Rays last night and have won 19 of their last 21 games. That improved their record to an MLB-best 59-28. The Rays still have the second-best record in the majors at 57-34 but they are now on a six-game losing streak. With their offensive production dropping off lately and their rotation hindered by injuries, that slide could continue.
The total opened at 8.5 but has ticked down to 8 at several books.
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Trend to know
The Braves are 11-1 in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Rays
Braves vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, July 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA): The fireballer relies primarily on a four-seamer that averages 97.1 mph but his slider is actually more effective with opponents batting just .148 against it. The 24-year-old can get hit hard when opponents make contact but they rarely manage to do that with Strider ranking near the top of the majors in whiff and chase rate while his strikeout rate of 38.6% is easily the best.
Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27 ERA): The 22-year-old is a tantalizing prospect but he doesn't look ready for the bigs. Like Strider, Bradley throws his four-seamer with plenty of velocity (averaging 96 mph) but has been getting touched up on his secondary pitches. He's coming off back-to-back ugly starts, surrendering 17 hits, 12 runs, and five dingers in 7 1/3 innings against the Mariners and Diamondbacks.
