The MLB betting board for Friday is headlined by a marquee matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves. These teams have the best records in the majors and will face off in a three-game interleague series at Tropicana Field.
MLB odds makers are having a tough time finding an edge in this series opener, with the Rays installed as slim -115 home favorites and the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free Braves vs. Rays MLB picks and predictions for July 7.
Braves vs Rays odds
Braves vs Rays predictions
Both of these teams have been potent at the plate, with the Braves leading the majors in OPS (.841) and the Rays ranked third (.787) despite playing their home games at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.
However, these lineups have been trending in opposite directions over the last month. Over the last 30 days, the Braves easily lead the majors with an OPS of .951, while the Rays are 19th with an OPS of .713.
The starters for both sides have proven track records but have been inconsistent this year. Atlanta's Charlie Morton has an impressive 3.57 ERA, but his expected ERA is just 4.67 and his WHIP is at 1.44.
The Rays are responding with Tyler Glasnow, who has pitched to a 4.50 ERA with a 5.06 xERA in seven starts. Glasnow does an excellent job of making batters miss, but when they make contact they've been doing damage.
He ranks in the bottom 10th percentile of the majors in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. That's bad news against a powerful Braves lineup that leads the majors in all three of those categories.
Morton doesn't get hit as hard and the Rays are 11th in barrel rate, fourth in average exit velocity, and 10th in hard-hit rate.
Atlanta's bullpen is third in the majors in ERA (3.45) and second in WHIP (1.19), while Tampa Bay's relievers are 12th in ERA (3.86) and ninth in WHIP (1.24).
The Rays have been dominant at home going 34-12, but the Braves have traveled extremely well and are 28-13 on the road. With Atlanta's slim advantage on the mound and its offense producing at a much higher clip over the last month, back the Braves on the moneyline.
My best bet: Braves moneyline (+101 at Pinnacle)
Braves vs Rays same-game parlay
Braves moneyline
Matt Olson Over 1.5 TB
Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 outs
Matt Olson is slashing .254/.361/.577 while ranking third in the majors in total bases with 191. He's been on fire over the last month, with a slugging percentage of .827 during his last 20 games.
The left-handed slugger is third in the majors in barrel rate, fourth in exit velocity, and seventh in hard-hit rate. He also crushes four-seamers and sliders, which are Glasnow's primary two offerings.
Glasnow has logged more than 17.5 outs just once in seven starts this year. The 29-year-old looked like a future star earlier in his career but injuries have been an issue, and it would be wise to limit his innings even when he does pitch well.
If he doesn't pitch well, he could get chased from this game early by a Braves lineup that leads the majors with 2.91 runs per game through the first four innings.
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Braves vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Rays as -125 home favorites, but it has slimmed to -120 or -115 as of 10 a.m. ET. The total has stayed steady at 8.5.
The Braves have the best record in the majors at 58-28 and have won 18 of their last 20 games. The Rays enter this contest on a five-game losing streak but still have the best record in the AL at 57-33.
The Rays have gone 4-3 in Glasnow's seven starts this season with the Over cashing in five of those contests. The Braves have gone 9-7 in Morton's 16 starts with the Over going 10-6 during that span.
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Trend to know
The Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Rays
Braves vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Friday, July 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA): The former All-Star is now 39 years old but is still an effective starter. He's fresh off an outing against the Marlins where he went 5 2/3 innings without giving up a run. However, he surrendered three runs in four of his previous five starts. Morton played with Tampa Bay in 2019 and 2020 so he's no stranger to pitching in this stadium. In 25 career starts at Tropicana, he has a 3.31 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an OBA of .221.
Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50 ERA): The towering right-hander missed most of the 2022 season as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery and he began this year on the IL with an oblique injury. Since returning to the rotation he has been up-and-down, allowing just a single earned run in three of his last six starts, but giving up a total of 12 runs in the other three outings.
