The Atlanta Braves aren't looking too hot heading into this game with the Baltimore Orioles. The six-time defending National League East champs have lost four in a row and now trail the Philadelphia Phillies by a whopping 10 games.
Braves vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Over 4.5 first five innings (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Devastating injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider are part of the blame for the Atlanta Braves 2024 struggles, but this team is too talented and deep to be down for too long, and I like their chances of finding their timing at the plate tonight against the Baltimore Orioles.
That’s in part because the O’s are handing the ball to rookie Cade Povich for his second career start, and the 24-year-old’s introduction to the big leagues was a rude one.
The lefty was welcomed to the majors by the Toronto Blue Jays, who tagged him for six runs on five hits and four walks back on June 6. Even without Acuna, the Braves are much better than the Jays — particularly against southpaws.
Atlanta isn’t crushing lefties like last season, but the team still ranks a respectable 11th in OPS and 13th in wRC+. For context, the Jays rank 26th and 25th respectively
With that said, the Braves will also turn to a rookie in this spot, Spencer Schwellenbach, who is making just his third career start.
His MLB experience has been similar to Povich’s, surrendering nine runs on 12 hits in 9 2/3 innings, meaning Baltimore's young and powerful lineup will be a problem. Baltimore ranks fifth in OPS and wRC+ and has swatted the second-most dingers against right-handed pitchers this season.
Braves vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 4.5 first five innings
Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBI
Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 RBI
So, who is going to produce those runs? Let’s start with the Braves and first baseman Matt Olson, who appears to be breaking out of his slump.
Olson is hitting .305 and sporting a .862 OPS with two HR and six doubles over his last 16 games. He’s also had eight RBI during that period, and I like him to drive in another tonight. And don’t worry about the left-lefty split: Olson has hit better against southpaws all season with a .260 average and a .824 OPS.
For the Orioles, I’m looking at Gunnar Henderson. The O’s phenom shortstop is having a great season, hitting .274 with a whopping 21 home runs and 46 RBI\. He’s also in a groove right now, batting .327 average with four dingers and nine RBI over his last 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Orioles odds
Braves vs Orioles live odds
Braves vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-190) | Baltimore -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +100 | Baltimore -120
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110) | Under 9.0 (-110)
Braves vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles opened this interleague matchup as -120 home favorites and have seen the early action, with the line now in the -130 range.
- The Orioles are the team playing better baseball right now, winning five in a row, while the Braves have dropped four straight.
- The total hit the board at 9.0 and has come down to 8.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- As noted, I like the F5 over but am avoiding the full game with the Braves and Orioles ranking sixth and fourth in bullpen ERA, respectively.
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Braves vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have hit the first five innings (F5) team total Over in 18 of their last 25 games for +10.80 units and a 37% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Orioles
Braves vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, MASN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (0-2, 8.38 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (0-1, 10.13 ERA) |
Braves vs Orioles latest injuries
Braves vs Orioles weather
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