Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: M*A*S*H Unit Mets Still Finding Ways to Win

The Mets are 28th in the majors in scoring 3.58 runs per game and are missing five of their best hitters, but they've managed to win three games in a row and are leading the NL East standings.

Posted: May 30, 2021 11:37 AM ET Updated: May 30, 2021 11:37 AM ET
Francisco Lindor Jonathan Villar New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Editor's Note: This game has been postponed due to weather. 

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets wrap up a short weekend series at Citi Field on Sunday night.

The Braves have won the NL East in each of the last three years but are two games below .500 this season while the Mets are in first place with a 25-20 record.

MLB betting lines have the Mets installed as slim -130 favorites with the Over/Under set at just 6.

Here are our best free Braves vs. Mets picks and predictions for Sunday, May 30, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.

Braves vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Date: Sunday, May 30, 2021
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Braves vs Mets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Fried (2-2, 4.63 ERA): The 27-year-old had a breakthrough season in 2020 going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA. While he got rocked in back-to-back starts to end the month of April, he has looked very sharp since recovering from a strained right hamstring. In his last outing, the southpaw allowed one run and forced 12 ground balls in seven innings against the Pirates. 

Jacob deGrom (3-2, 0.80 ERA): The two-time Cy Young winner is spinning together another spectacular season, going 3-2 with a 0.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts through 45 innings. After missing two weeks with injury, the dominant right-hander returned on May 25 against the Rockies, fanning nine batters and allowed one run through five innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Chris Martin RP (Questionable), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Christian Pache OF (Out).
Mets: Jeff McNeil 2B (Out), Pete Alonso 1B (Out), Michael Conforto OF (Out), J.D. Davis 3B (Out), Brandon Nimmo OF (Out), Kevin Pillar OF (Out), Albert Almora OF (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

The Braves were crushed 13-2 by the Mets last night and have now lost back-to-back games to drop to third place in the NL East. The Mets have won three in a row, taking over top spot in the division and they will be looking to increase their lead with another victory tonight. 

Let's not mince words: the Mets suck at hitting, ranking just 25th in the majors with an OPS of .665. To be fair, however, this is a lineup decimated by injuries with five key starters (and two reserves) currently on the IL.

But frankly, that might not matter with Jacob deGrom on the mound.  The right-hander is on his way to one of the greatest seasons in MLB history, on pace to shatter modern records for ERA (0.80), ERA+ (478), and strikeouts per 9 innings (14.8).

Even with a lineup that can't hit the broad side of a barn, the Mets have a good chance of winning when deGrom toes the rubber, going 16-7 in his last 23 starts going back to the 2019 season.

Braves starter Max Fried has been sharp lately but he simply isn't on deGrom's level. And the Mets bullpen has also been better, boasting a 3.51 ERA compared to the 4.75 ERA of Atlanta's relievers. 

Being able to bet on the best pitcher in the world at -130 with a Mets squad that is 8-1 in its last nine home games is simply too good of a value to pass up.

PREDICTION: Mets (-130)

Over/Under pick

We mentioned how badly the Mets are at the plate, but it's worth mentioning again: not only do they rank just 28th in the majors in scoring with 3.58 runs per game but they are missing five of their best hitters, including 2019 MLB home run leader Pete Alonso.

That's not a great sign for a Mets team facing off against Fried, who has enjoyed an excellent May. Fried has allowed just one run in each of his four starts, boasting a 1.50 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP over the month.

We also mentioned how incredible deGrom is and while Atlanta has a dangerous lineup, the Mets ace has a track record of dusting the Braves — just like he does every other team in the majors.

In his last 12 starts against Atlanta, going back to 2018, deGrom has a 1.72 ERA against his NL East rivals. And while the Braves plate an impressive 5.30 runs per game with an OPS of .814 at home, they struggle to hit on the road, averaging 4.35 runs per game with an OPS of .684.

The weather also suggests we could be in for a low-scoring game with a 13.5 mph wind blowing in from centerfield. Even with the O/U installed at a very low 6, we're taking the Under. 

PREDICTION: Under 6 (-110)

Braves vs Mets betting card

  • Mets ML (-130)
  • Under 6 (-110)

Picks made on 5/30/2021 at 10 a.m. ET

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