We've got a packed day of baseball on Tuesday with 16 games on the MLB betting board, headlined by a double-header between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets.
Game 1 is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET and will be a duel between veteran right-handers Charlie Morton and Carlos Carrasco, who will both try to bounce back from ugly performances. The Mets lost to the Braves last night but are slim -120 home favorites for the early contest with the Over/Under at 7.
Here are our best free Braves vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for Game 1 on April 3.
Braves vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Mets installed as -120 favorite with the Over/Under at 7. As of 9:45 a.m. ET, the Mets have inched up to -125 at some books, while the total has stayed steady but is juiced towards the Over at about -120.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/03/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Tuesday, May 3, 2022
• First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet New York, Bally Sports Southeast
Braves vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (1-2, 7.00 ERA): The two-time All-Star was the Braves' most reliable starter in their World Series run last season. However, he has struggled to begin this year, pitching to a 1.78 WHIP and .296 OBA through 18 innings.
The 38-year-old is coming off an outing against the Cubs where he allowed four hits and three runs before getting the hook midway through the third inning. Morton has just one quality start in four games this season and that came all the way on April 8 when he faced the pathetic Reds.
Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 4.09 ERA): "Cookie" was looking like one of the better pitchers in the majors before he got shredded by the Cardinals last Wednesday. Carrasco had a 1.47 ERA with a 0.55 WHIP in his first three starts of the year and then surrendered nine hits and eight runs in just 3 2-3 innings of work versus the Cards.
The 35-year-old has battled Leukemia and nagging injuries over the last few years but looks to put those in his rear-view mirror as he tries to rediscover the form that helped him go 60-36 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with Cleveland from 2015 to 2018.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).
Mets: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss while the Braves are 1-5 in their previous six contests after a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Atlanta beat the Mets 5-2 last night thanks to a strong start from Max Fried and clutch hitting from catcher Travis d'Arnaud. The Braves are still two games below .500 as they aim to defend their World Series title.
On the other hand, the Mets have taken massive strides since a disappointing 2021 campaign and have the best record in the NL at 16-8 despite the extended absence of superstar pitcher Jacob deGrom.
New York's other starters have stepped up, including today's hurler, Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is coming off an ugly outing in St. Louis but he looked very sharp in his first three starts of the year, allowing just nine hits and three runs in 18 1-3 innings.
The Braves will give the ball to Charlie Morton. Morton has a strong career resume but the 38-year-old seems to be on the decline. The right-hander has struggled in each of his last three starts, giving up 19 hits and 12 runs across 12 2-3 innings.
Both of these teams have dangerous lineups but have underachieved. The Braves have had a tough time making contact, while the Mets need to display more power at the plate.
That said, the Mets still have a slim edge in OPS (.722 to .707) and scoring (4.58 runs per game to 3.92). With the Mets also benefitting from home-field advantage and looking like they have the more consistent starter on the mound, back them as slim faves.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-120 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The total is currently sitting at 7, which looks a tad too low given the recent performances of both starters and the caliber of hitting these sides are capable of.
Morton hasn't had a quality start since his season debut, and that came against the woeful Reds. He hasn't been the victim of bad luck either, with easily his lowest strikeout rate since 2015, the highest walk rate of his career, and opposing batters boasting a sweet-spot percentage of 41.4% against him.
That's bad news against a Mets lineup that has been making good contact and is led by a pair of All-Star sluggers in Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor.
Although Carrasco's first three starts of the year were lights out, regression was inevitable and happened suddenly against the Cardinals last week. Carrasco is looking like the solid starter he was with Cleveland, but he isn't nearly as dominant as those first few outings of the year suggested. He'll be going up against a Braves lineup that is third in the majors in barrels per plate appearance and ranks eighth in hard-hit rate.
Atlanta has a loaded lineup on paper and it's just a matter of time before it emerges as one of the higher-scoring teams in the majors, especially with Ronald Acuna Jr. working his way back into shape after recovering from last season's ACL tear.
Prediction: Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
By nearly every metric, Morton has really played poorly this year. Although his four-seamer is still averaging 94.8 mph, his whiff rate of 15% on that pitch is far lower than last season's 23.2%.
Morton hasn't racked up more than five punchouts in any of his four starts this season and has a strikeout percentage of just 17.4%. Since 2016, his lowest strikeout rate was 24.7%, and that was in the abbreviated 2020 season.
Meanwhile, the Mets have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors. We're taking the Under 5.5 on Morton's strikeouts total today.
Pick: Charlie Morton Under 5.5 strikeouts (-134 at FanDuel)
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