Braves vs Marlins Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Ends Division Drama

In search of one final victory to seal what's been an exciting NL East division race, we're going back to the basics and are backing the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline. We break it all down in our MLB betting picks below.

Robert Criscola - Contributor at
Robert Criscola • Publishing Editor
Oct 4, 2022 • 11:24 ET • 4 min read
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The Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins will play their penultimate game of the season at LoanDepot Park on Tuesday night.

The Braves’ magic number to clinch the NL East remains at one, as they lost 4-0 to the Marlins last night and the New York Mets were rained out.

Will tonight be the night the champagne corks fly in the visitors’ locker room? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs Marlins.

Braves vs Marlins best odds

Braves vs Marlins picks and predictions

The Braves are not in an ideal situation for clinching their fifth straight division title, as they send Jake Odorizzi to the mound in Miami on Tuesday night. However, that's fiving us a moneyline price that's somewhat appealing.

The motivation for Braves manager Brian Snitker to win this game should be high, especially if the Mets take the first half of a doubleheader with the dreadful Washington Nationals at home this afternoon.

Assuming New York does win and keeps their NL East hopes alive, Snitker will likely manage his bullpen more aggressively should Odorizzi  who had a 2.000 WHIP in September – get himself into early trouble. 

The alternative could be waiting until the last day of the season to clinch the division, and having to use ace starter Max Fried on his scheduled day to pitch. Snitker will likely want to avoid the possibility of the Mets winning the division through the backdoor, no matter how slim it is, and having Fried unavailable to pitch in the Wild Card round until Game 3 on short rest, if at all. 

Bettors should expect Odorizzi’s leash to be short even if the Mets lose today and hand the NL East to Atlanta, as he owns a .355 opponent batting average the third time through the order, but the Braves’ relief corps has been a source of strength all season long, as they own the third-best ERA in the majors at 2.95, and the No. 1 mark over the last two weeks at 0.96.

By contrast, the Marlins’ bullpen is a modest 21st by ERA this year at 4.12, and just 15th with a 3.72 ERA over the last 14 days.

The Braves’ bats are second in the majors by OPS against lefties this year (.775), so expect them to tee off on Miami starter Braxton Garrett en route to a victory. 

My best bet: Braves moneyline (-159 at BetRivers)

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Braves vs Marlins moneyline analysis

Monday’s upset loss aside, the trends say the Braves are the moneyline play on Tuesday night. 

Atlanta is 49-11 in its last 60 games against teams with losing records, and 35-16 in its last 51 games against left-handed starters. The Braves are also 58-24 in their last 82 games against the Marlins – including a 12-5 mark in 2022 – so this is an opponent that they own.

Meanwhile, the negative trends are piling up for Miami, a team that will be searching for a new manager this offseason. The mutual decision between the team and Don Mattingly to separate was announced on Sept. 25.  

The Marlins are 20-41 in their last 61 overall, and 11-27 in their last 38 home games. They’ve also dropped 25 of their last 34 divisional contests. 

This is a club that has an eye on the distant future, not the immediate one. The Fish are not even bothering to give Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara one more start on Wednesday, instead opting to “rest” their ace, which speaks to a further lack to motivation for this club at the end of another losing season.

Braves vs Marlins Over/Under analysis

Two vulnerable starters will square off in this one, and the total is not absurdly high. Over bettors will want to head to the windows here, particularly if they’re looking to cash a first five innings wager.

Prior to Monday’s shutout loss, the Braves plated 5.75 runs per game during a 7-1 run that was capped off by a weekend series sweep over the Mets. Perhaps there was a hangover effect in Miami yesterday evening. 

Atlanta has a good chance to recuperate against the left-handed Garrett, as the Over is 12-5 in the Braves’ last 17 road games when facing southpaw starters. Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson have combined for seven home runs over the last week, so look for them to lead the offensive charge for Atlanta in this one.

Meanwhile, the Marlins have one of the hottest hitters in baseball in their lineup in Bryan De La Cruz, who has a 1.234 OPS over the last 15 days. The Braves were unable to contain him in the series opener, as he jumped the yard and drove in three runs in the Miami victory. If there’s an early rally against Odorizzi, expect De La Cruz to be leading it. 

Braves vs Marlins trend to know

The Braves are 71-33 in their last 104 meetings with the Marlins in Miami. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Marlins

Braves vs Marlins game info

Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Date: Tuesday, October 4, 2022
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Florida

Starting pitchers

Jake Odorizzi (5-6, 4.53 ERA): Jake Odorizzi had a September to forget for the Braves, authoring a 7.88 ERA over four starts, in which he lasted just 16 total innings. Odorizzi was fortunate to escape with only two earned runs allowed against the Marlins in his lone start against them this year, as he surrendered eight hits and a walk in only four innings on Aug. 12. 

Braxton Garrett (3-6, 3.56 ERA): Braxton Garrett has had difficulty pitching deep into games for the Marlins, failing to record six innings in five of his last seven starts. However, he blanked the Braves over six frames in his lone outing against them this year (Aug. 14). 

Braves vs Marlins latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Braves vs Marlins weather

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